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Non-Tech : Derivatives: Darth Vader's Revenge -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Worswick who wrote (1455)	1/1/2010 3:45:14 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2794

Goldman seems to be the better connected, not an inconsiderable advantage. More from another connected NYer, Stephanie Pomboy of MacroMavens: ritholtz.com “Ben Bernanke has achieved through his unprecedented actions over the past year, it’s “only a pause in a broad deleveraging story.” But, she warns, the game is far from over. “As the clock starts on the New Year, the likes of exotic mortgage recasts, small-biz failures and state and local tax hikes will take the field. And the realization will dawn that none of our fundamental problems — most notably excess leverage — have been solved…And just as one could argue that markets were overly aggressive in discounting the end of existence as we knew it back in March, so, too, they may be guilty of anticipating our imminent arrival at Nirvana today.” The agent of the great awakening will be gathering pressures on the credit market, as banks are “forced to re-provision, and resurgent delinquencies find Fannie and Freddie (and everyone else) putting ill-made mortgages back to lenders.” Credit will grow dear and do so precisely as the demand for it from borrowers looking to roll over maturing obligations swells. The numbers, Stephanie exclaims, are unbelievably big. Uncle Sam must roll over $2.5 trillion in debt during the next two years, banks worldwide have some $7 trillion due in the same stretch and commercial real estate will weigh in with another $750 billion.