To: Bucky Katt who wrote (41849 ) 7/7/2010 4:56:50 AM From: Bucky Katt Respond to of 48461 Alan Abelson of Barron's nails it again> NO SOONER DID WE VOICE OUR REGRET about taking the edge off your weekend than we were faced with discussing the truly depressing employment report for June released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday morning. But try as we might, we scanned the 38 pages of the document and couldn't spot more than the tiniest rays of sunshine in the gloomy numbers. As expected, last month saw 125,000 jobs disappear, reflecting the 225,000 pink slips handed out to Census workers. The private sector added a meager total of 83,000 slots. The unemployment rate declined to 9.5%, from 9.7% in May, but hold the hurrahs: The dip owed everything to the fact that a formidable 652,000 threw in the towel and stopped looking for a job. That, says Gluskin Sheff's Dave Rosenberg, was the second-biggest plunge in the size of the workforce in 15 years and, except for it, the unemployment rate would have been 10%. For that matter, thanks to the statistical concoction known as the birth/death model, the ranks of the gainfully employed were swelled by 147,000 (our advice is don't waste your time trying to find any evidence that even one of those jobs actually exists). Our favorite measure of unemployment, U6, which includes the seriously underemployed, weighed in at a highly elevated 16.5%. Dave also stresses the drop in average hourly earnings, which he calls a one-in-50 event that "dragged the year-over-year trend down to 1.7% from 1.9% in May." Bad enough, obviously, that so many people are out of work, but even for those with a job the paycheck may be getting smaller. Exclaims Dave: It's a "good thing that we're headed for a prolonged period of consumer-price stability, because if the headline inflation rate were to stay at 2% indefinitely, we would be talking about a sustained decline in real wage-based personal income." In other words, except for deflation, the average Jane and Joe, already feeling the pinch, would have to get used to a more subdued standard of living. Manufacturing, for example, boosted payrolls by a scant 9,000, less than half the average from December through May, while health care took on the same number, its feeblest showing since April 2009, when just about everything was still in the tank. The 21,000 temps that were hired were the fewest since September 2009. Although the number of unemployed for 27 weeks or longer declined a modest 12,000, the ranks of those out of work for 15 to 26 weeks swelled by 47,000. And especially telling in the realm of long-term unemployment is that the average duration of joblessness rose to 35.2 weeks, which according to Doug and Philippa is an all-time peak and a full 14 weeks above the high of any cycle before this one. By their reckoning, employment is now roughly four million below where it should be in a normal recovery, while the unemployment rate is 1.4 points higher and the employment-to-population ratio is 1.4 points lower. The bottom line for Doug and Philippa is that "at the recent rate of private-sector job creation it will take nearly seven years just to make up the recession losses—and that doesn't even allow for population growth." Let's hope that somebody or something cranks up what used to be called the great American job machine, and does it pronto. online.barrons.com