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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (6424)	11/3/1997 12:44:00 PM
From: Hank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Pancho, After a rough analysis of your posts and some prior knowledge of IPIC, I'd have to disagree with you on several points. 1) I don't believe they will go out of business as long as they have other drugs in development that are backed by major drug company money. Companies like Merk and Lilly are not going to bail out on their deals with IPIC just because of Redux. Redux is Wyeth's problem. The other drugs are what Merk and Lilly are concerned with. 2) The lawsuits revolving around Redux are probabaly going to hit Wyeth harder than IPIC. Wyeth undoubtedly supplied the resources to do the clinical studies and probably used their own clinical people to do them. It's these types of studies that are supposed to reveal inheritant dangers in a new drug. Since the clinical studies failed to pick up on the dangers of Redux, I would think this makes Wyeth more liable. 3) IPIC has a fairly cunning management team and they are very good at selling themselves. I wouldn't overlook this as a significant factor. I haven't followed the Redux story that closely, so some of this is conjecture. However, I have been in the pharmaceutical business for eight years now and this isn't the first time I've seen a bad drug get through FDA approval. If IPIC were a one drug company, then I would agree they are doomed. But since they are not, the worst case scenario I can see is that they get taken over by one of the larger drug firms. In meantime, if I were going to short them, I'd be inclined to short them in the 12-13 range with a short term target of 9-10. I think 5 is expecting a bit much and zero is ridiculus. Hank