To: roguedolphin who wrote (106366 ) 1/11/2010 4:07:10 PM From: RockyBalboa 2 Recommendations Respond to of 116555 It is a rabbit hole, indeed. But it is part of the big business. The turning point came when the CDS settlement procedures were changed to cash settlement. THis was done mostly because of one incident, a settlement of Dana bonds. Car part suppliers, those outsourced workbenches of the (former) Big Three have been considered Ch.11 fodder for some time as they felt the pressure of their large and already struggling customers. In essence, all went down and how. But when Dana CDS holders tried to cash in their insurance they got a school in a bond squeeze since they had to deliver a bond, so they struggled to buy the issue up which promptly rose to unrealistic levels. Thereafter, retribution was sought and the next settlement, of an estimated 20B of Dura CDS one of the first cash settlements led to a maximisation of the settlement result as the senior bond got depressed to a 20%. The leverage was huge because the market value of the Dura issue in question was perhaps 500M at the time of the settlement. My own calculations came to a value of nearly 60%, and in few months after the settlement event it would reach this price. Well all that was pre-crisis, around 2005/2006 so ultimately all the dura assets were worth pretty little. See earlier on this very thread: >>>> Message 22708427 CDS cash settlement GM Bankruptcy Risk Exposes Imbalance in Booming Default Swaps March 14 (Bloomberg)bloomberg.com The possible bankruptcy of General Motors Corp. has exposed flaws in trading of so-called credit default swaps because the number of contracts has outstripped the bonds they insure. The market's trade association, meeting this week in Singapore, is working to prevent disruptions by computerizing recordkeeping and permitting contracts to be settled with cash instead of bonds. >>> Message 22701952 Delphi