Here are some of the many DailyKos posts that may start to explain what happened in Massachusetts -- tough for outsiders to fully process...but there are lessons to be learned from some of these posts...
Have you ever been to Massachusetts?
by Noisy Democrat on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 11:45:48 PM PST
People in Massachusetts absolutely do vote based on whether the person cares enough to be visible, to stand in the cold shaking hands with voters, to show up. And they vote based on whether people they respect and have known for years are behind the candidate.
I'm originally from California, then lived in Michigan before moving to Boston. Massachusetts is different. It would never in a million years occur to me to bitch because I've never seen Senator Barbara Boxer in a Dunkin' Donuts in Silicon Valley. It never occurred to me to ask "How come I've never personally met Senator Debbie Stabenow?" in Michigan. But Massachusetts is much smaller, and the people care much more passionately about the personal touch, and they get really, seriously cranky when they feel that politicians aren't personally accessible. John Kerry knocked himself out to meet and talk with people in the small towns of Massachusetts when he was up for reelection in 2008. He had to. That's how Massachusetts is.
If Coakley didn't bother to get out and shake hands, and the Powers That Be in the Boston area didn't pull out all the stops for her -- there goes the election. Not saying health care wasn't a factor too, but you really can't dismiss these other factors.
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by Catzmaw on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 09:47:08 PM PST
I've done A LOT of reading out at Boston.com and assorted other places where the comments of voters were recorded. Many of the Brown voters gloated about voting for "change" because they were sick of the "machine". A few of them talked about issues specific to Massachusetts as if Brown is somehow going to be able to change those things from his desk in Washington. Frankly, I was confounded at the degree of ignorance by the public about just what a Senator can do. They were probably spoiled by the extraordinarily effective Teddy Kennedy and think all Senators can do what he did for his constituents as a matter of course. Boy are they in for a surprise.
Other voters talked about disliking Martha Coakley for everything from screwing up the Curt Schilling question to that case she's alleged to have mishandled to being distant and/or aloof, to having really nasty commercials against the pretty, formerly naked Cosmo guy. There seemed to be a lot of personal animus against her. I didn't see many comments against Obama. Instead, what I saw from Brown and his supporters was a co-opting of the Obama message about hope and change. Filling the vacuum left by the failure of the Dems to actually address the issues raised by teabaggers and frightened people exposed to way too much Faux (Fox) News propaganda they were able to exploit the nebulous, formless dissatisfaction and disappointment of people convinced that they're getting the short end of the stick. People are worried and scared and the Dems don't want to talk about what scares them. Why don't Dems believe in explaining stuff to people in short, punchy sentences? Why can't they talk about some of the good stuff they've done in the past year? Why didn't anyone run ads talking about Coakley as a positive embodiment of Teddy's legacy?
This wasn't a referendum on the Obama agenda, but how about making it a referendum on the type of bullshit negative campaigning so beloved by Democratic campaign managers convinced that all they have to do to win is run a few ads calling their opponents names and accusing them of being evil? I see the same crap time and again - the Democratic ads accusing handsome, charming Republican candidates of "hating" women or some other such nonsense and completely alienating people who find these ads and attitudes to be over the top. The Dems don't need to change their philosophy or their goals. They need to change how they package the message.
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Concerns about Coakley:
by Mogolori on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 08:18:54 PM PST
If everyone knew she was such a stiff, then why didn't the White House intercede and shut her down last summer? And barring that, why didn't they get up there this fall and start kicking her tail up and down the Mass Pike when she couldn't get herself motivated? Did no one in the Obama administration contemplate before last week that she might lose this race??
Well, they should have, because tonight Scott Brown may have slapped a "one-termer" sign on Obama's back. Not in a squeaker, but in a romp.
This loss accrues to Obama's entire political team, and he's going to have to fire someone.
Obama promised Kennedy on his death bed (read the last paragraph of The Globe's EMK obituary) that he would deliver health care. Now not only will health care stall (because the blue dogs and corporatists will abandon it like a one-eyed runt, maybe even 11 or 12 of them), but Obama will have shown himself politically incapable -- one year into office --of holding onto the Senate seat that generations of Kennedy's right down to the old Ambassador himself fought for for 50 years.
Albatrosses like these in electoral politics don't come much larger than this. __________________________
OK, but I think some may need to understand this election in context...
by Fonsia on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 09:04:14 PM PST
The major dynamics of this are easy. It's as old as politics:
The country is in the toilet. It was in the toilet under the Rethugs, and they lost. It's still in the toilet under the Dems, so we lost.
When the country's in the toilet, the public votes against the guys in power. It really is that simple.
Obama's approval numbers are tracking Reagan's almost perfectly. Reagan was stuck in a deep recession during his first two years, and couldn't get the jobs numbers up any better than Obama, so far.
It's jobs, baby, jobs. Obama can turn this around the same way Reagan did, and I think he may be about to start doing that.
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The only thing that worries me is that this recession is worse than Reagan's...
by Fonsia on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 09:53:03 PM PST
Obama's going to have to do something really innovative, like starting the Federal government, somehow, lending to small business if banks won't.
Or re-starting the WPA (shoulda done that with the stim bill).
Anyway, something innovative and popular.
Then let the Rethugs go to the Senate floor and filibuster it. Make them actually filibuster. For weeks. On teevee. Force them essentially to shut down the government (that worked so well for Newt, after all).
He's gotta get jobs rolling again, and he's gotta bash the Rethugs until they're seeing stars.
I think he will.
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Seems a lot like what happened in MD in 2002, when Kathleen Kennedy Townshend lost to Bob Ehrlich (R) in another unthinkable defeat...Hmmmm....
by oceanstar17 on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 07:59:23 PM PST
For whatever reason the state's Democratic establishment was hostile to her. Along with an inept campaign, biased media coverage against her, and a charismatic Ehrlich, the result was MD electing a Republican to the Governorship for the first time since 1966.
2006 rolled around. Bob Ehrlich fought like hell to win another term, but lost to Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley. Much like Bob Ehrlich, who lost in 2006, expect Scott Brown to lose when the Democrats nominate someone competent. But for the next few political cycles the GOP will get political mileage out of this win.
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Many of the comments are technically true, but in politics, perception quickly becomes reality...
by puakev on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 08:16:03 PM PST
The fact is, the "repudiation of Dems and Obama" narrative, whether it's actually true or not, soon becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy the more it is repeated which it certainly will be in the coming days, weeks and months leading up to the midterms.
No matter whether it is fair or not, President Obama will be blamed for this loss in MA and he now faces a choice. Scale back his agenda like Clinton in 1994 or double down like FDR in 1935 (when he was losing his liberal base).
I think Obama should double down.
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It doesn't seem like Coakley learned from senior Senator Kerry how to deliver on the campaign trail...
by Noisy Democrat on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 10:00:04 PM PST
When Kerry got a primary challenge from a thoroughly unqualified nobody whose main claim to fame was his record of representing drunk drivers in court and getting them back on the streets -- Kerry campaigned tirelessly. John Kerry made appearances all over Massachusetts. He took the threat very seriously. It seems as if Coakley didn't take Brown nearly as seriously, or she just didn't know how to do retail politics.
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This is worth considering...
by alba on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 09:47:23 PM PST
The Kennedys did campaign for Coakley towards the end but there were so many stories about how displeased the Kennedy family was that she began her campaign for Ted's seat well before his death. And of course Coakley herself rarely mentioned Ted Kennedy during her campaign.
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Spin this any way you want...
by djfm on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 10:44:18 PM PST
the Democratic party right now has no positive identity, nothing that it stands for, nothing that could be put into a mission statement. We're the party for record military budgets, health care "reform" that will make insurance companies even richer, and bailouts for the parasites that have wrecked our economy with little or no help for the millions of suffering unemployed. I will never vote for a Repugnant but it will be hard to vote for a sell-out Democratic party. Peace and prosperity, that's what I want, that's what matters. The Dem party needs to re-boot.
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The Reason this election should be paid attention to...
by Dagoril on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 10:47:08 PM PST
The real reason Coakley lost isn't really that important from a politics perspective.
The narrative that comes out of this will be a disaster. "The Dems couldn't get anything passed with 60 votes in the Senate...how on earth will they get anything done now?"
And the usual morons will be pushing congresscritters even further to the right, convinced that that is what voters want.
We have a broken country. One party refuses to govern, because they think government is literally evil. The other party is incapable of governing, because they don't have the stones to play hardball when necessary. And both parties have the system locked up tight, so that no one new can come in and play ball. Change is needed, yet impossible. It's not going to end well.
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Let's consider what happened in Massachusetts...
by Jose Bidenio on Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 11:04:18 PM PST
Coakley had many primary endorsements from unions and Boston lawmakers including state Auditor Joe DeNucci. That was just the beginning.
Bill Clinton endorsed Martha before the primary and 500K Clinton robo calls went out to voters.
But even before that, I was worried. Shortly after Teddy passed, Coakley made it clear she was interested. Enter stage left: Emily's List and their gobs of dough. That was announced months ago and I was terrified.
This election was lost during the primary. Unfortunately, Capuano was busy making law in DC so he was unable to do much in person campaigning instead doing a few teleconferenced town halls and delegating much of his campaigning to his wife and sons.
Dukakis also endorsed Capuano which might have not been the best thing if you go back and look at the state of the Mass economy and budget when Dukakis left office. How do you think Weld got elected?
And then think about this. Coakley made 19 campaign stops and Brown made 65. What? Who was all around the state hustling the most?
Coakley went on vacation in the Caribbean after winning the primary? What?
Coakley said Catholics shouldn't work in emergency rooms? What?
The other thing is that Brown is not your run-of-the-mill teabagger. Calling him that and viewing him that way allowed him to fly under the radar. Brown is a Lt. Colonel JAG in the Army National Guard (30 years I think). He went to Tufts and BC Law. Not exactly Sarah Palin in the brains category, even if you and I disagree with his politics. He ran a smart campaign. And remember that Scott Brown has never lost an election. Bringing in Flutie and Schilling was a smart move. The truck was a smart move. The guy is funny. He appears to be a nice family man. He reminds me of a rigth-wing Obama to be honest. We shouldn't underestimate him or people like him. If Sarah Palin can be a heartbeat away from the presidency, Scott Brown could be president someday. |