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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (92247)	1/12/2010 10:12:57 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hey Chip, great to see you... I think the absolute worst case would be a pull back to 1090.80, this market is hell bent on moving much higher over the next 6 months... GZ

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (92247)	1/12/2010 12:34:10 PM
From: fred woodall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

US Banks Have No Escape From Bad Loans -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tue Jan 12 09:49:53 2010 EST By Matthias Rieker and Marshall Eckblad Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES TAKING THE PULSE: Cheap money to fund new loans and higher interest rates earned from such loans are expected to provide a lift in the traditional lending business, but losses from soured loans likely will still mire many banks' fourth-quarter results in losses. Out of 19 big national and regional banks followed by Sanford C. Bernstein analysts Kevin St. Pierre and John McDonald, 12 will report fourth-quarter losses, the analysts said in a research report. Sandler O'Neill said it expects 38% of the 156 banks and thrifts it covers to post a loss. On average, profits will decline 12% from a year earlier, Sandler O'Neill predicted. That is a higher decline than the average analyst expects, according to Thomson Reuters. But the profit decline is less steep than in previous quarters. Though no analyst is seeing anything even remotely resembling a recovery, banks' long efforts to squirrel away money to cover delinquent loans and the shrinking of loan books are perhaps starting to pay off. "The regional and community banks are now in a better fundamental position as the U.S. economy and housing markets stabilize and recover," Oppenheimer analyst Terry McEvoy wrote in his research report. COMPANIES TO WATCH: Citigroup Inc. (C) - reports Jan. 19 Wall Street Expectations: According to Thomson Reuters, analysts expect Citigroup to post a fourth-quarter loss of 33 cents a share on $19.4 billion in revenue. Citi's 2008 fourth-quarter loss was $3.40 a share, with $5.6 billion in revenue. Key Issues: The global company will close another tumultuous year on an up note: It recently repaid the $20 billion remaining in government support. (The Treasury Department still owns 28% of Citi's common stock.) As Citi reduces the government shadow, investors are eyeing Citi's basic businesses, investment banking and global consumer and business banking, as the bank works to sell off such peripheral businesses as unsecured consumer lending and disposal of troubled assets. A slew of operations, including Nikko Cordial Securities, were sold in the fourth quarter. Investors will be most heartened when Citi turns a profit that is not the result of large, one-off accounting credits like asset sales or unrepeatable trading gains. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) - reports Jan. 15 Wall Street Expectations: Analysts on average expect J.P. Morgan Chase to post earnings of 62 cents a share on $27 billion in revenue. J.P. Morgan reported a profit of 6 cents a share in fourth-quarter 2008, on revenue of $17.2 billion. Key Issues: J.P. Morgan has impressed Wall Street with its low level of delinquent business loans and its supercharged profits from securities underwriting. "Similar to the other capital markets banks, we expect that advisory/underwriting fees will hold up well," Sanford Bernstein's McDonald wrote. But the bank's massive portfolios of credit card, home equity and mortgage loans remain a bellwether for other lenders, which have been battered for quarters by consumers falling behind on payments. Fourth-quarter delinquencies and management guidance could offer insight about when losses might actually peak. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) - reports Jan. 20 Wall Street Expectations: Wall Street is expecting the company to report a loss of 51 cents a share on revenue of $27 billion. In fourth-quarter 2008, Bank of America reported a loss of 48 cents a share; it made $16 billion in revenue. Key Issues: Bank of America's new chief executive, Brian Moynihan, will issue his first earnings report since taking charge of the bank Jan. 1. But since Moynihan has been at the helm less than two weeks, investors won't get true signs of his progress. That means Wall Street will have its eyes peeled to see how Bank of America's consumer and commercial loans are performing. Although the bank has a strong investment bank, thanks to its purchase last year of Merrill Lynch, Bank of America's overall performance is highly dependent on the economy, and especially unemployment, which has a direct impact on borrowers' ability to make their monthly loan payments. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) - reports Jan. 20 Wall Street Expectations: Analysts expect a fourth-quarter loss of 2 cents a share on revenue of $21.9 billion. Wells Fargo reported a 79-cent per-share loss a year earlier, on $9.5 billion of revenue. Key Issues: Collins Stewart analyst Todd Hagerman said the bank could be among those charging off loans it deems uncollectible more aggressively at year-end. Favorable mortgage-servicing hedge results and successful capital raising "provide plenty of incentive" to get rid of bad loans fast, he wrote. Earnings from lending are expected to decline slightly in the fourth quarter from the third, because the San Francisco bank is letting pick-a-pay mortgages to run off. Overall earnings will also suffer from a $2 billion charge related to last month's Troubled Asset Relief Program repayment.