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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (9834)	1/12/2010 2:08:19 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 24213

TOD comment..some good ones today. Darwinian on January 12, 2010 - 9:36am Link up top: 'Peak oil' a myth (The link can be viewed only if you disable scripts.) They are changing the rules of the game. It is no longer "Peak Oil" but "Plateau Oil". "All of these responses to higher oil prices push "peak oil" further into the future. Thus, "peak oil" is like the desert mirage that recedes as one approaches it... Today, in the context of world petroleum production and factoring in rising oil prices, "peak oil" becomes "plateau oil." There will be no abrupt peaking of world oil production followed by a decline as postulated by Hubbert. Instead, there will be an extended period when oil continues to be available at "prevailing prices." Over time, prevailing prices will fluctuate along a rising trend line, thereby prolonging "plateau oil." Non-OPEC oil peaked, or plateaued if you will, in 2004. Adjusted for inflation oil prices in 2004 averaged $42.97. The average price has risen ever since. The same adjusted for inflation numbers for 2008 averaged $91.35, over twice as much. Yet non-OPEC oil production fell between 2004 and 2008 by 800 thousand barrels per day. Of course you could say that non-OPEC production has been on a five year plateau ever since, and it has. However it is a descending plateau that has descended even though prices have risen ever year. But really this is all beside the point. Peak oil is peak oil even if the peak lasts for a decade it is still peak oil. But the dumbest part of their argument is that prices will fluctuate along a rising trend line. Non-OPEC, which procuces 58 percent of the world's oil, has been fluctuating along a declining trend line. And, I expect OPEC to follow a similar pattern though at present they do have between one and two mb/d reserve capacity. Ron P. Edit: Mike, I was typing this post while you were posting yours. Had I known I would have posted it as a reply. However you hit the nail on the head, it is Distinction Without a Difference. They are simply calling "Peak Oil" by another name and pretending it is something totally different. It is not. Plateau Oil is the exact same thing as "Peak Oil". A longer peak is still peak!