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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (46503)	1/17/2010 8:41:07 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95427

Sam, the article highlights a possibility of a repeat of the October SOX response during the roughly 3 weeks of quarterly earnings. <<Last week, I compared and contrasted the market's sentiment backdrop now relative to the sentiment backdrops in July and October 2009. Pessimism preceded a rally in response to earnings reports in July; trader optimism preceded a decline in response to earnings reports in October.>> A look at this optimism and the SOX reaction during the following 3 weeks of October can be found in the rolling quarter table shown in Message 26214404 The table is repeated below for ease of viewing. The week ending 10/9 did very well - SOX up 6.5 percent, but then the next 3 weeks were down by about 10 percent. The following chart of the SOX weekly shows the graphical picture of the October action as well as the previous 2 weeks. The last 2 weeks show the same type of action as the 1st 2 weeks in October. The color highlights on the chart show the areas of interest. In this case, last week was a very severe drop and much more than the 1st week of the downtrend in October. The question is - will the action of the next 2 weeks follow that of October with a further pullback. Present optimism is running high which is usually the "setup" for a pullback, particularly if more companies like Alcoa disappoint.