Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (5301)	1/19/2010 11:29:19 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26251

We're both Dollar bulls in 2010, but I'll probably settle for the 90-92 range for later 2010 early 2011. Important TA area and also would be a simple ABC up from the lows (monthly). I'm guessing your 120 is more 2012+. Beyond that we'll see. All of our debt is becoming weighted to the short term. So our funding needs will only get far more intense in the future regardless of what ST policies we take. I could see 120 in the realm of possibilities, but I think it would take 1) A breakup of the Euro 2) Massive worldwide depression 3) China bubble popping 4) Massive reductions in US Gov. spending at both the Federal and State level I could see the first 3, but I think #1 is far from a sure thing. I see number #4 in the same category as the Easter Bunny and Santa at least as long as the status quo is preserved. People/politicians won't change till forced. Given how manipulated these markets have become (or at least subject to massive gov intervention) I'd say almost anything is possible, but at those levels our Debt would be insane. I've heard postulated that the Dollar needs to fall roughly in half where our debt could become payable again. I'm hopeful that's the case w/a combination of reduced entitlement/gov spending. I think a level over 100 would crush the economy. Multi-nationals have become addicted to the cheap Dollar. While the Fed can't force the Dollar higher they've proven pretty good making it go lower. A certain amount of Dollar strength is favorable for the Fed as it allows them to walk the Dollar down over 5+ year period (hopefully). I can't see the FED allowing the Dollar to get much past the 90-92 if they can help it. Ideally they'd probably love to stabilize the Dollar in it's current range, but I just don't think that's possible LT. Markets/gold feel like they're going to be falling together soon. We'll get a mini scare soon and then probably a nice/deeper correction in Feb. Shorting today w/a stop slightly above 52 week highs seems decent risk/reward. Knowing these markets I may get stopped out again, but with the Dollar rallying and gold looking like it needs to correct more ST I like the odds.