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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: CusterInvestor who wrote (60209)1/21/2010 2:05:42 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 219734
 
he is an austrian, literally, and he was asked, i quote ...

player 2 Thanks for that, very helpful material, and well put.

>>It's not quite clear yet if the hoarding is based on expectations of a resumption in genuine demand or if it is based on growing inflation fears - maybe it's both, but if it's primarily the former, then a disappointment is likely in store.

I assume here you mean that another opportunity to acquire platinum/palladium may show up real soon now <g!>...

player 1 both look short term overbought to me, but i note that the PGMs are very unique markets. there is currently no economically viable substitute in sight for their main industrial application, and prices are probably a secondary consideration (up to a point) given the small amounts of the metals used per catalyst unit.

then there's the fact that these markets are very small, so they can move a lot on relatively little additional demand (additional demand comes now in the form of more ETFs).

and lastly, they are in a primary supply/demand deficit and have been for a while.

that said, from a psychological standpoint, the same considerations apply as in the case of silver - the industrial demand component (or put another way, waxing/waning economic confidence) is the primary determinant of their price relative to the gold price. obviously in 2009 they have profited both from increasing economic confidence and the supply/demand deficit. note also that per experience, palladium tends to be the lagging market (time-wise, the last to run and peak in rally phases).