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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (26397)	1/22/2010 2:28:15 AM
From: NOW	2 Recommendations Respond to of 71474

the money printing has to get out into folks hands first. the velocity of money continues to fall.

To: gregor_us who wrote (26397)	1/22/2010 2:41:20 AM
From: RJA_	Respond to of 71474

Thanks. Lots to think about.

To: gregor_us who wrote (26397)	1/22/2010 7:24:44 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71474

Houses in some areas are in the bargain bin now compared to other countries. Of course, the government propped the housing market some, but the prop will likely end in April and we'll have another low. I would argue there will be no better time to buy a house than, perhaps, later this year or next year, when older houses in some places will sell well below the cost of materials to replace them. For that very reason I don't think houses are going to zero. Perhaps, the best bargains out there now, not that they can't get even cheaper. -g-

To: gregor_us who wrote (26397)	1/22/2010 9:23:15 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	4 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71474

US Dollar crash vs decline. Would you consider a move to the 40-50 area over 4-8 year period a crash? I guess I would define a crash as more of a 25%+ decline in less than 1-2 weeks. Given the problems in all the other major currencies I don't see that as very likely, but certainly possible. I agree w/everything you're saying from an FA perspective, just a question of timing and interactions. If CBs buy each other's crappy currencies with QE can't this game of extend and pretend continue a bit longer? I keep hearing Japan will have issues prior to the US. Based on the reasoning I've seen I tend to agree, but I'm no expert. If Japan does get hit first it would seem good and bad for the US from a Dollar perspective. Would they be forced to sell Dollars or would they keep them in reserve if the Dollar appreciated as a ST safe haven? Other than looking at Treasuries and the value of the Dollar what other methods will you use to determine the degree of capital flight? It would seem the Fed would try to hide this data as much as possible or obscure it. Trying to find global central bank reserves during the Great Depression. US Dollar is still very over owned. Would like to see what % the Pound Sterling and German mark represented during the early 1900's. >>Prior to World War I, the United Kingdom had one of the world's strongest economies, holding 40% of the world's overseas investments << edinformatics.com Now the pound is approx 2% of global CB reserves. Not apples to apples, but you get the idea. We're at a point w/no precedent with the Dollar still over 60% of the worlds CB reserves. The world has a vested interest to prevent a Dollar crash on the one hand, but the fact that it's so over owned also makes a crash certainly more possible. Reading further from same link... >> This was abandoned on 21 September 1931, during the Great Depression, and sterling suffered an initial devaluation of some 25% << So maybe that supports your thesis of a crash since the Dollar is certainly more precarious than the sterling at the same pts in history.

To: gregor_us who wrote (26397)	1/23/2010 5:45:04 PM
From: selivanov	Respond to of 71474

You need this moslereconomics.com

To: gregor_us who wrote (26397)	1/23/2010 11:41:36 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 71474

Pretty much how I see things, recent events notwithstanding. The time to have acted responsibly has passed. Easy money now=hard times later. We are commencing the 'later' part of that ineluctable equation.

To: gregor_us who wrote (26397)	1/24/2010 12:09:49 PM
From: zebra4o1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71474

Gregor - Debt Jubilee. Do you still read Grant's? Was blown away to read in this issue about a company making money (or trying to) by drastically reducing loan balances on underwater defaulting mortgages. They buy a distressed MBS at 15 cents on the dollar, then negotiate with individual home owners to cut their loan balance enough to give them positive equity. With much lower payments and positive equity, the loans become performing, and are then worth more than 15 cents on the dollar. Don't know if it is me or Grant, but aside from this current issue, I am not getting much out of him the past six months.

To: gregor_us who wrote (26397)	1/24/2010 3:00:17 PM
From: TH	2 Recommendations Respond to of 71474

gregor, You have a real talent for concise statements like these. The idea of buying time with 10 steps of increased purchasing power really strikes a chord with me, as I've been thinking the same thing for some time (triggered in response to a funding crisis, which may already be happening, but is masked by Fed indirect buying). I too do not think the Dollar goes to zero, for the simple reason that there are plenty of attractive assets for foreign currency to purchase. Gold is the ultimate "foreign" currency. GT TH