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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (46558)	1/23/2010 3:41:02 PM
From: Sam	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95445

Relevant to WFR, AMAT and other companies involved in the solar sector. * Friday, January 22, 2010 ET Solar: German Subsidy Cut Makes Street Rev, EPS Ests Too High, FBR Says; Sees Risk Stocks Extend Fall By Eric Savitz The solar-stock sell-off triggered by the recent move in Germany - which thanks to aggressive subsidy support is by far the world’s largest solar market - to cut its feed-in tarrifs to the sector could have further to go, according to FBR Capital analyst Mehdi Hosseini. In a research note this morning, Hosseini notes that solar integrators, distributors, installers and project developers have already begun to reset their expectations for systems installation in Germany for the 2010 first half. The analyst says he was surprised to find that ASP negotiations have already begun affecting pricing for modules to be delivered as soon as March. While Hosseini says that some analysts believe project owners will be willing to absorb lower rates of return, he thinks they will pass on some of the pain to the component suppliers: ergo, he sees at least a 25% drop in module prices in 2010 from 2009. That view, Hosseini writes, suggests there is at least 20% downside risk to current consensus revenue expectations for the stocks in the group - with potentially greater impact on EPS if cost reductions are not aggressive. And that, he concludes, “leads us to believe there is still significant downside risk to solar stocks even following the recent sell offs.” Hosseini’s worries are weighing heavily on the group today: * JA Solar (JASO) is down 27 cents, or 5.5%, to $4.61. * Canadian Solar (CSIQ) is down $1.22, or 4.9%, to $22.98. * Solafun (SOLF) is down 18 cents, or 2.4%, to $7.42. * ReneSola (SOL) is down 21 cents, or 4.2%, to $4.84. * Trina Solar (TSL) is down 80 cents, or 3.5%, to $21.86. * MEMC (WFR) is down 56 cents, or 4%, to $13.61. * LDK Solar (LDK) is down 13 cents, or 1.9%, to $6.87. blogs.barrons.com