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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (60390)	1/25/2010 6:22:45 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219176

just out from send tray mr goldman has something to say to comfort hk property participants. frankly, i do not understand the pricing of hk real estate, and in truth, i never did. hk is just a small piece of rock with nothing on it except very noisy restaurants and very expensive shops. i do not 'get' hong kong. but, after having been bashed on the head as a renter for 14 years (1984-1998) of what i did not understand, i had in good enough time sensed that if one was not long hk residence, one is in fact short, and short hurt; the hurt was cumulative, compounding, and terrible days in, horrible nights out, gnawing, especially when knowing i was in truth working for my landlord, who is most likely an idiot without any benefit of sporting a shred of socially redeeming value and only by fate of faithful to hk real estate religion just got better of me. the situation with gold, as with hk real estate, is equally mysterious. after sweet engagement starting at asian financial crisis low, i came to appreciate what i did not and still do not understand, and i believe hk real estate is already beyond the comprehension of anyone with mathematical sense or economic logic, but ... the chinese, just as they do in san francisco, new york, or hawaii, just make the illogical more so, and keep doing so. i admit it. i am afraid, especially when alone, at night, and particularly when no one else is afraid. ... in response to what just came in in-tray Reference ONLY Concerns over bubble risk premature Current concerns on the potential housing bubble in the HK real estate market are overdone. Unlike the previous bubble in mid-90s, mortgage loan growth has lagged property price rise this time. Measures of speculative activities, affordability and cost of carry are healthy. Goldman Sachs thinks housing bubble concerns are premature and developer stocks’ weakness is unwarranted. Wealth allocation shows strong pent-up demand; job creation key A snapshot of the ratios of property value, equity value and bank deposit for Hong Kong overall indicates that the weighting of property in Hong Kong people’s asset allocation remains small. They expect accelerating job creation to drive the next leg of residential price appreciation. Every bubble needs a source of funding Goldman Sachs believed a potential housing bubble cannot grow without a parallel (to property price rise) rise in financial leverage. More than half of Hong Kong’s private housing stocks are not carrying any mortgage. They believed simply comparing total mortgage loan outstanding with the market value of private housing stocks tends to understate the mortgage burden of the new/marginal buyers as the increase in mortgage loan will be absorbed by existing housing units without mortgage, in this kind of “average loan per unit” calculation. Further, the net increase in property owners is about a small percentage of the total housing stock. Source: Goldman Sachs, Hong Kong: Real Estate, 25 Jan 2010