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To: mishedlo who wrote (107386)1/28/2010 2:47:47 AM
From: koan1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
To: Rock_nj who wrote (185764) 1/28/2010 1:31:16 AM
From: stockman_scott of 185812

This video is awesome! Great production value. Keynes v Hayek rap battle...

bit.ly



To: mishedlo who wrote (107386)1/28/2010 11:17:56 AM
From: riversides  Respond to of 116555
 
A Dose of Reality, a Bid to Restore Magic

nytimes.com

By PETER BAKER
Published: January 27, 2010

WASHINGTON — By now, President Obama can hardly be under any illusions about the depth of the partisan divide as he seeks to reboot his presidency. Yet he still seemed surprised on Wednesday night when he could not get Republicans to applaud tax cuts.

As he boasted in his first State of the Union address that his economic program had cut taxes for 95 percent of working families, Democrats jumped to their feet to cheer. Republicans sat quietly. Mr. Obama paused as he glanced over to their side of the House chamber. “I thought I’d get some applause on that one,” he said.

If Mr. Obama thought he could take the rostrum in the House chamber and restore his image as the change agent who came to Washington to end the politics of division, he received another reminder just how hard that will be. Mr. Obama tried to recapture the magic of his yes-we-can campaign after a season of no-we-can’t governing, but conceded little if any ground to critics on either the right or the left.

It was a confident performance, more defiant than contrite, more conversational than soaring. He appealed to and scolded both parties, threatened vetoes, blamed his predecessor and poked fun at lawmakers. The agenda was largely the same, dressed up in fresh packaging, as he offered point-by-point rebuttals to the litany of critiques he hears with increasing frequency. He acknowledged only a failure to explain his policies without retreating an inch on the policies themselves. His main message: “I don’t quit.”

In the wake of last week’s Republican victory in the special election for a Massachusetts Senate seat, Mr. Obama had to tackle head-on the disappointment that has dragged down his poll numbers. He pleaded for patience and understanding. “I campaigned on the promise of change; ‘change we can believe in,’ the slogan went,” he said toward the end of the address. “And right now, I know there are many Americans who aren’t sure if they still believe we can change — or that I can deliver it.

“But, remember this,” he went on. “I never suggested that change would be easy, or that I can do it alone. Democracy in a nation of 300 million people can be noisy and messy and complicated. And when you try to do big things and make big changes, it stirs passions and controversy. That’s just how it is.”

After a year of learning just how it is, Mr. Obama adopted again the mantle of reformer he wore the first time he addressed Congress as president a year ago. He even used the same phrase, “deficit of trust,” to describe his diagnosis, and he proposed some of the same medicine in the form of cracking down on lobbyists and special-interest spending.

But he is not in the same place he was a year ago and he gave little indication how he would change the dynamics that have frustrated much of his agenda so far. After all, when he addressed Congress last year, his strategists were developing a big-bang plan to move ahead on multiple fronts.

By the end of his first year in office, they had expected to have overhauled the health care system, enacted a market-based cap on carbon emissions blamed for climate change, imposed a new regulatory system on financial institutions, closed the prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, and signed a new arms control treaty with Russia. None of those have happened, and while some of the proposals quite plausibly still could, Mr. Obama left unclear his strategy for getting there.

Instead, he expressed the frustration common in the White House these days: that he has not gotten more credit for the successes he has had, particularly in pulling the economy back from the brink of a new Great Depression.

That was where the tax cuts came in. While the economic stimulus package Mr. Obama pushed through Congress last year is known largely for its spending, he pointed out that it also included a variety of tax cuts, and then repeated it in case anyone missed it. The Republicans who chose not to applaud have argued that the tax cuts were simply accompanied by too much spending.

In fact, when it comes to his program, the narrative of too much was the major notion Mr. Obama was trying to dispel. Gov. Robert F. McDonnell, the newly inaugurated Republican leader in Virginia, emphasized the point in his official response to the president’s speech. “Today, the federal government is simply trying to do too much,” Mr. McDonnell said.

In the face of that judgment, shared not just by Republicans these days, Mr. Obama could have pulled back but chose to push forward. To those who said his ideas have been too ambitious, he said: “I have one simple question: How long should we wait? How long should America put its future on hold?”

The truth is, Mr. Obama is still trying to figure that out for himself. Since the Massachusetts election cost the Democrats unilateral control of the Senate, the president and his advisers have been grappling for a plan to move forward on his agenda. Some things inevitably will have to wait, and Mr. Obama’s plans since last week have been a work in progress.

The day after last week’s election, he suggested returning to the “core elements” of health care, only to have aides hours later try to walk back the statement and insist he did not necessarily mean he wanted a scaled-back plan.

Even on Wednesday, the plans seemed fluid, literally changing even in the final hours, either in substance or in presentation. When aides previewed the speech for reporters in midafternoon, they said Mr. Obama’s plan to spur lending to small businesses would draw $25 billion from repaid bailout loans. By the time he spoke in the House chamber six hours later, the amount had increased to $30 billion.

Such differences might have meant little to viewers trying to gauge whether the Mr. Obama they were watching was the same Mr. Obama they voted for. “I never thought the mere fact of my election would usher in peace, harmony and some post-partisan era,” he said.

On that, pretty much everyone could agree.



To: mishedlo who wrote (107386)1/28/2010 11:25:25 AM
From: riversides  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Not a Game-Changer,by Mark McKinnon

thedailybeast.com

Obama deserves credit for embracing conservative ideas like deficit reduction and a spending freeze. But he failed to see the need to rein in his liberal agenda.

The problem with State of the Union speeches is that they are by their nature and design alphabet soup. It’s hard to know what a president really cares about when they run down a laundry list and check every issue box under the sun for fear they will offend some constituency if they don’t.

What I had hoped to hear Wednesday night from President Obama was that he recognizes that the world and reality he faces as president is vastly different than the world he saw as a candidate. And with that recognition would come a resolution to temporarily shelve many of the campaign promises on issues like energy, health care and immigration. And, yet, despite a growing public concern that Obama is trying to do too much, he didn’t seem tonight to acknowledge the need to limit his agenda in order that he might provide sharper focus on the economy and jobs.

The reality is that the speech he gave tonight in terms of his agenda hasn’t changed much from speeches he was giving a year ago.

It was good to hear Obama embrace some conservative ideas like a spending freeze, a commission on deficit reduction, tax cuts for businesses who hire new employees, pay-as-you-go and earmark reform. And Republicans would be wise to endorse, embrace and work with the president on these issues. Republicans must pick a few issues and prove that they are not simply going to reject the president on every issue for purely partisan reasons. It was embarrassing to see Republican leadership sit on their hands even when Obama went through a litany of tax cuts he has supported.

It was reassuring to see Obama avoid resorting to overheated populist rhetoric. It doesn’t come naturally to him and while attacking big business and banks may generate easy applause lines, it is not responsible leadership. Obama continues to come across as serious, sober, and thoughtful. While much of his agenda may appeal to the liberal Democrats, this speech was more evidence that Obama is more of a pragmatist than an ideologue. He gave a nod to health care, but made clear that jobs is now his No. 1 priority and he’s not going to resort to political legislative tricks to ram the health-care bill through to appease the left.

The speech was good, but not a game-changer. I think a week from now, the picture of this presidency will look largely the same.

As vice chairman of Public Strategies and president of Maverick Media, Mark McKinnon has helped meet strategic challenges for candidates, corporations and causes, including George W. Bush, John McCain, Governor Ann Richards, Charlie Wilson, Lance Armstrong, and Bono. McKinnon is co-chair of Arts & Labs, a collaboration between technology and creative communities that have embraced today's rich Internet environment to deliver innovative and creative digital products to consumers.



To: mishedlo who wrote (107386)1/28/2010 12:03:58 PM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Mish.. What happens when bond "bubbles" pop?

Where does the money go?

Gold?? Possibly.. Stocks/Equities?.. Generally.. Real Estate?? Possible..

But if we're facing more deflation, which seems to be what both of us agree is the overall current trend for the foreseeable future, then one would think we'd see even more upward pressure in the debt markets.

After all, look at where our treasury rates currently are, even WITH the huge "stimulus package" from Mr. Obama.. Historic lows...

If the market perceives that he's not going to issue more treasury supply, then there will be even more demand for the supply that exists.

This seems to me to be the ultimate quandary. We look at bond yields and immediately opine they are overbought and there is no value there. But corporate bond purchases was where money went when they couldn't find value in Treasuries.

Thus, I agree with you.. bonds are tremendously overbought. Savings and CD rates might as well be zero. There's so much money looking for safety out there that our rates are at historic lows.

There are just TOO FEW qualified borrowers out there. And most are paying down their debt, while others are finding themselves unemployed and not even able to pay their mortgages, just waiting for the foreclosure papers to be served.

Jobs.. Mish.. Jobs.. If our people are not working, preferably in productive activity (even if temporarily paid by taxpayers), there will be continued deflation.

Hawk