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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (36562)	1/29/2010 9:05:57 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78724

Hi Paul Here is the latest McDep report. Titled: Natural Gas and Oil for the Twenty-Tens mcdep.com XOM and MRO were all rated buys at the time the article was written 1/5/2010. The McDep NPV estimates has XOM at 80% and MRO at 70%. COP represents my most resent buys has a McDep NPV ratio of 63%. I like your thinking on the possible dumping of shares from the recent XTO merger which might result in a depressed XOM price (short term). XOM also reports their earnings on Monday. One of my themes this year is to focus on companies that participate in the domestic NG sector including exploration, collecting & transportation, pipelines inter & intra state, storage, infrastructure build out and electrical generation. My thinking is with XOM's entry into the mix with XTO, WMB restructuring their partnership debt so they can buy more NG assets, the Canadian Trusts reverting to corporations and buying U.S. assets, there seems to be enough disruptive forces to see some consolidation in this sector. Did you find any shippers that have LNG vessels? I wonder if FRO's next big purchase will be in this category of ships? If so, the financing will go through SFL. ----------------------------------------------------------------- I am focusing on stocks making recovery lows that are still trading above their 50 week MA but have fallen sharply reflected by them breaking down below their 50 Day MA. The one caveat is I am selecting those stocks that have fallen on low volume (as measured against their average daily & weekly volume). Their are some pundits claiming this correction is due to some very large fund managers selling their winners from last quarter. I see it as simple profit taking. I am trying to nibble at those companies that continue to show longer term strong relative strength but are participating in the sell off on lower than average selling volume. I find that you have to be patient, pick your entry level and selectively work your way into a position. With the higher VIX, there may be opportunities for swing trades but for now, I am trying to build up the foundation of the portfolio which includes harvesting losses and re-entering positions with lower cost basis. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (36562)	1/30/2010 1:17:45 AM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78724

I am well aware of XOM's qualities. in late 2008 and early 2009, XOM benefited from a flight to quality (AAA balance sheet, huge size, lowest cost in industry, , balance sheet with net cash, management reputation) and that IMO was the reason the shares held up so well. of course for the very same reason the stock recovered less. So far that is understandable. A lot of watches expected XOM to make an smart acquisition, since XOM is known to have good timing and strong execution with acquisitions (Mobil Oil was the last major one). Then they decided to take on XTO and paying full price at that. despite a substantial cash component, this acquisition is not accreditive to earnings immediately. I think it's an unexciting acquisition just like BRK's BNI takeover. I don't like a pay a premium for a company that is making these kind of acquisitions. I think both TOT and MRO will outperform except if the world is going to end and in that case XOM won't do well either just less worse than it's competitors. In a reasonable environment MRO in particular will give XOM a run for it's money as they have been doing since Y2002 and might even become takeover fodder with an extra juicy payday.