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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (237195)	1/29/2010 10:40:37 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 306849

I used this morning bounce to lighten a bit on what I bought a few days ago. With the Dollar making a new ST high I don't think miners get much more than a small oversold bounce here. I think NEM has a date w/at least 42 here and gold looks to still have more downside. Mistakenly thought miners might have been held back ST by uncertainty regarding Ben reappointment. I still have some positions, but keeping a very tight stop now as I expect more weakness later today.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (237195)	1/29/2010 12:16:48 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

The sequence of events here is giving me deja vu all over again. It is reminiscent of July 2008. The materials stocks peaked sharply and reversed, as the emerging markets turned down hard. Much of Asia had already turned months prior, while Brazil and Mexico topped dead last due to strength in commodities. However, the REITs and consumer stocks that I was short kept hanging on, as did many of the financials. They waited a couple of months before they got into serious trouble. I guess the take-home lesson, if there is one, would be that the sector patterning right now could continue for a couple more months, with REITs and consumer stocks holding up surprisingly well while materials and emerging markets continue to get sold. Then, when that has weakened the props under the market sufficiently, the crap like CRE, finance, and retail might finally get beat up. Of course, the usual caveats apply - just because weakness in emerging markets and materials presaged a sound beating for the broader economy a couple months later doesn't mean it works that way this time. But it does appear that this selloff is the first of the past year to have the right ingredients for the "double dip." I think the "herd" gets obsessed with the sharpest moves, and since things started in materials and the PIGS, they'll run from those for a while. They get preoccupied with that and ignore the financials, IYR, and consumer stuff, simply because they're focused elsewhere. Of course, the weakness in the former leads to weakness in the latter, but they're too busy selling steels and dumping dollar carry trades to worry themselves with the outcome two months from now. `BC