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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Perspective who wrote (237325)	2/1/2010 9:13:38 AM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Will have to look into Tanger a little more. At first glance, their Debt/Equity doesn't look all that bad. One would also think that roughly 60% of the rental income losses have already hit, and they are still profitable. They might survive. As far as the justification of trading near all time highs ..... there is none. I got toasted but not burnt holding the REITs short since March. Makes all the sense in the world. Northwards of $1 trillion in CRE debt has to be rolled in the next few years, and the collateral securing it has been cut in half. Ah well. I suppose that if Bernanke bought all of the residential mortgages in the world, he will do the same for REITs.

To: Perspective who wrote (237325)	2/5/2010 11:47:20 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

You miss the strong survivors have a better tenant mix and ability to attract even more high quality tenants and thus even more customers as the poorly capitalized, overleveraged centers with an increasing vacancy rate go under. They will eventually pick up some depressed centers for pennies on the dollar like the RTC days. These guys like Simon minted even more money during the recession and guidance keeps going up. Cap rate seems about 8% which is a reasonable valuation relative to the 10 yr treasury. What will eventually take it down would be long term rates spiking. I think you should be looking for some highly leveraged poorly run hotel operators who acquired the bulk of their assets during the bubble instead..