House Passage Of Health Bill Will Be Suicidal
By JEFFREY H. ANDERSON AND ANDY WICKERSHAMPosted 06:42 PM ET
In his State of the Union address, President Obama advised Democrats not to "run for the hills" on ObamaCare, but to pass it regardless of what the voters think. Imploring Congress to resist public opinion, he said: "We can do what's necessary to keep our poll numbers high and get through the next election," or do "what's best for the next generation."
ObamaCare can pass only if House Democrats heed his advice. Whether the Democrats try "reconciliation," try to pass a skinnier (still fat) version of ObamaCare or try to sneak elements of their proposed overhaul into law when people aren't paying close attention, this much is true: ObamaCare can't pass without passing the House.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said, "I don't see the votes for it at this time." She'd better hope she's right. For if Pelosi coaxes House Democrats into passing ObamaCare, she'll become Minority Leader Pelosi next January — or just Rep. Pelosi. Passing a bill would be political suicide for Democrats.
As Scott Brown's upset victory in Massachusetts demonstrated, ObamaCare is not popular. By better than 2-to-1, Americans think ObamaCare would cause their costs to rise and their quality of care to decline.
President Obama would like House Democrats to overlook these inconvenient truths. They won't, however, oblige him — unless they don't care whether they, or their fellow Democrats, get re-elected.
Consider this: Of the Democrats who voted yes on the House version of ObamaCare, 39 of them represent districts that Republican presidential candidates carried in at least two of the past three elections.
Ten of these 39 members represent districts where Republican presidential candidates won by double digits in at least two of the last three elections. These members include Tom Perriello (Va.), John Salazar (Colo.), Chris Carney (Pa.), Zack Space (Ohio), Alan Mollohan (W.Va.), John Spratt (S.C.), Bill Foster (Ill.), Melissa Bean (Ill.), Brad Ellsworth (Ind.) and Baron Hill (Ind.).
Think these 10, all residing deep in GOP territory, want to vote for ObamaCare again after seeing what happened in Massachusetts? More likely, they're just hoping that their prior support will slip their constituents' minds come November.
Furthermore, the Democrats got only 220 votes last time. With the loss of their lone Republican vote and of a member who has since left the chamber and won't be replaced for a couple of months, they are now down to the magic number of 218. So, every vote lost would have to be replaced with another.
But from where? Those who voted against ObamaCare last time did so for a reason.
For an indication of how toxic ObamaCare likely seems to these members, consider this: Of the 39 Democrats who voted no on the House version of ObamaCare, all but four represent districts where the average margin between the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates over the last three elections has been at least 30 percentage points worse, from a Democratic perspective, than in Massachusetts.
And now, with ObamaCare's popularity at its nadir, President Obama would like these members to turn a blind eye to what happened in Massachusetts and come aboard.
Most members who voted against ObamaCare also voted for the Stupak Amendment, which the House passed to preserve long-standing protections against using Americans' tax dollars to pay for abortions. The Senate scrapped that amendment and has made clear its opposition to it.
Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Okla., describes the Senate bill as providing a "radical shift in policy that will require taxpayers to pay for abortion." Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius says the Senate language "was negotiated by Sens. Barbara Boxer and Patty Murray" and would "take a big step forward from where the House left it with the Stupak Amendment" in "making sure there are choices for women."
Pro-life Democrats in Republican districts would have an awfully hard time swallowing that change — as would their constituents.
So, how many of the House Democrats who voted no on ObamaCare (a) didn't vote for Stupak, and (b) represent districts where Democratic presidential candidates have come within even 10 points of victory, on average, over the last three elections?
Just nine: John Adler (N.J.), Larry Kissel (N.C.), Scott Murphy (N.Y.), Michael McMahon (N.Y.), Eric Massa (N.Y.), Allen Boyd (Fla.), Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.), Glenn Nye (Va.) and the retiring Brian Baird (Wash.).
These members' constituents might want to applaud their prior opposition and make clear to them the merits of staying the course.
But even without such constituent feedback, it's hard to imagine why anyone would want to jump on the ObamaCare train as it steams toward the cliff — not after a previously unknown Republican rode his opposition into Ted Kennedy's Senate seat.
• Anderson was senior speechwriter for Secretary Mike Leavitt at the Department of Health and Human Services.
• Wickersham is a writer and consultant.
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