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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (60948)	2/9/2010 7:18:23 PM
From: TobagoJack	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217552

just in in-tray player 1: More good news from Capital Gold. Assuming 5,200 ounces per month going forward, that would imply 62,500 ounces per year. At $1,100, that is roughly $70 million in revenue and probably $25 million in earnings. That is less than 7X PE....with no net debt. I will add at $2.90 if we see that level again. John Brownlie, Capital Gold's President and Chief Operating Officer, said that gold production continues to increase at El Chanate. "The installation of an additional crushing plant earlier this year has increased crushed ore production to the leach pads that, in turn, has resulted in a considerable increase in gold production for January," he said. player 2: eventually El Chanate should be at a 70K oz. p.a. run rate, and i think this could be increased even further with additional capital investment. since the resource base is close to 2m. oz., and there has been high grade gold encountered in test drilling below the pit , this mine could become much bigger than originally envisaged. sort of like the original Homestake mine was developed. (also started out as a small operation that kept growing its reserves and output over time). player 2: re whether a nation that goes de facto bankrupt defaults via an outright default or via inflation is largely a question of political expediency when the time to decide on the manner of default comes. there is no telling yet how that will play out in the US and UK. “What we need now is a second round of stimulus,” Stiglitz said, to this i can only say it's about as needed as a hole in the head. the economy is already burdened by near record peacetime government spending. Stiglitz seems to be competing for the 'how to run things into the ground as quickly as possible' award. (BN) Stiglitz Says U.S., U.K. Default Is ‘Absurd’ Investor Notion Both nations “deserve to keep the Aaa rating” and “the likelihood of a default is so small, particularly in the U.S. because all we do is print money to pay it back,” he said in response to questions after a speech in London yesterday. “The notion of a default is so absurd, it’s another reflection of the absurdities in the financial markets.” player 4: The prospect of default is not at all absurd. The net debt of the USA is mostly held by foreigners. Defaulting on its obligations would remove a large burden from US taxpayers and instantly augment their net worth. It would also reduce the perceived threat posed by the $ 2-3 trillion war chest possessed by the fascist Chinese state. The only other alternative is currency debasement and inflation, which impoverishes most Americans and imposes an additional cruel tax on them. It is Japan for whom default is unthinkable,their debt is owned by the Japanese people. player 3: i second that - a default may in the end turn out to be politically more palatable than the alternative of hyper-inflation. player 5: now if we can just guess what day that will occur. possibly one of the finest trades in recorded history on that day. jay is speechless when he thinks about it. <gg> player 6: in such a default scenario would gold do poorly and the dollar well? If the US indeed does default, it could lead to a war with China/Asia as that would instantly impoverish those nations so I would have thought such an outcome is very unlikely player 5: more likely and instant bout of hyperinflation, and war <g> let's see, what happened during the russian default. i forget. so many crises, so little time. HB? player 7: LOL. has any one country ever had it so good? and can it possibly get any better for the dollar??? i mean.. think about it... here people are contemplating a US default on its debt and the question is not whether dollars will even be worth enough to be used as toilet paper after something like that (just as ever other major government default has resulted in) but instead the debate is over how high the dollar might trade and how low would gold go. its as if the US can vomit on the side of the road and people cant help but want to roll in it as if its perfume. it reminds me of the tech bubble days when the question was not “how much could i lose buying a tech stocks at 300x trailing EPS?” but rather the worry was how much one might underperform by buying a real business that might just be overpriced vs. an even more expensive internet stock with no revenue and no earnings! truly hilarious... and alarming at the same time. i need more gold! player 3: allowing the default to happen was the only thing they could do, and it was ultimately the right decision. the rouble and the stock market got crushed at the time, but it also produced a low point from whence the country has experienced a genuine long-lasting recovery. mind, there are lots of other dominoes waiting to topple long before this becomes an issue for the US imo. that said, i wouldn't be terribly surprised if historians were to look back at the 2008 crisis one day as the moment in time when the end of the modern-day monetary system began. player 8: fwiw-tulving reports its best day ever selling bullion-5.3 million on Feb. 4th.. physical demand seems pretty strong.... player 7: no doubt. you also see it in the fact that the 1M GOFO rate is toying with plunging below zero and indicating that gold is in official backwardation too player 5: of course all of this gold talk today was a sell you know, right? lots of bouncing against the 200 dma's can you put up a few more charts so i can really sell it? <g> player tj: we should rest up by nap show up early at the feast, as usual, and be fully in favor of another round of stimulus just so long as we know and are sure of the ground rules specifically how we would be rewarded given that the government can change little of the reality stimulus would and must do for now we must encourage the governments to waste effort on energy so that they are too busy to waste us war? doubt it. there is no reason at all to think china would be against the usa defaulting in any form by any means. the implicit but perhaps popular belief that a post-default usa is just like a pre-default america but minus the debt deserves a re-think. the explicit but understandable idea that a china devoid of 1 tril of yieldless paper is a china derailed certainly deserves a re-think. big war won by america or anyone else actually participating is even more doubtful, for that is simply not how the bible does its work. i believe team usa shall default, first on the foreigners, and then on its own for that is how empires must do, but that is precisely how empires end all good things comes to ends, and none end well else the bible fails to do its work at some juncture some of us would find ourselves holding mostly physical gold, and then having running down to hang seng bank to turn in some coins to fund even just a used mini cooper i now know two individuals on this planet who keep much of their cash in gold form i am not there yet because i am an optimist certainly more so than the canned food hoarders ... on reflection, perhaps should china truly wish to punish america, they would not be selling t-bills they would be buying following paulson n co's lead and last night i made longterm commitments to kinross, gold fields, and anglogold ashanti, establishing 2/3 of full positions in each as well as shorted gdx march put strike 42 following on the earlier action on strike 40s 80% (in value) of china sovereign investments in africa has been in services just so that 20% in resources can be expanded by and by through another round of re-civilizing for that continent so, i figured, why not african gold mines? particularly because at some juncture india and china would be bidding against each other.