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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: captaintime who wrote (61025)	2/11/2010 9:42:59 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217901

the boyz from various continents were just e-mail discussing the merits of various places for abode, and hkg appears to have won in the mean time, just in in-tray · The initial catalyst for the present equity correction may have been China “overheating”. But the market action has of late taken a more deflationary turn with the US dollar rally and the decline in the US 10-year Treasury bond yield. · GREED & fear’s fundamental view remains that the overheating concerns in Asia remain noise and will sooner or later be proven to be so. Massively more serious is the fundamentally deflationary condition of the West. The escalating sovereign debt concerns in the West are clearly the most likely potential catalyst to send markets much lower in the short term. · GREED & fear’s main concern about Greece and the problems facing Euroland in general is that the crisis could well escalate again in coming weeks and months precisely because the Europeans do not want to resort to the obvious expedient, which is to call in the IMF. · It is far from clear to GREED & fear that Brussels and Berlin can control the Greek crisis. There is the critical political issue of whether a combination of Brussels and Berlin can really impose any credible austerity on Greece. · Greece is like Argentina, Mexico or indeed Russia in that it has a history of defaults and capital flight. The technocrats in Brussels, and the naturally obedient political classes in Berlin, may be underestimating the potential market dynamic in terms of the potential for capital flight out of Greece. Investors should keep an eye on deposit outflows. · If there is an escalation of the panic, then the political end game is a default and a Greek forced exit from the euro. At that point the IMF is called in belatedly and holders of Greek bonds taking a big haircut. Such an outcome would cause more damage to risk aversion and the euro in the short term. It would also cause the potential for a ratcheting up in negative focus on the likes of Portugal and Spain. · Ultimately what is at stake here is whether Euroland will be a strong or weak currency area. The Germans naturally want a hard currency area. Still if Berlin wants to play fiscally tough with the likes of Greece, political reality suggests that monetary policy will have to remain much easier for longer which implies a retreat from any planned “exit”. · Britain has been out of the speculators' line of fire of late because the view has been that Britain has had the benefit of the devaluation option. Still the British economic data remains fundamentally weak. With the Bank of England now putting its asset purchase programme on hold, the risk is that a gilt auction fails sooner or later which will then mean renewed quantitative easing. · A sovereign debt crisis in the West is coming sooner or later. This is why the recent correction in gold is an opportunity to buy more bullion and more gold mining shares. In GREED & fear’s view gold remains the best hedge against the almost inevitable Western currency debasement. The next best hedge is Asian currencies and Asian assets. · Hong Kong property stocks have been hit by the renewed risk reversion as much as other higher beta areas of Asia. But the continuing supply crunch causes GREED & fear to remain fundamentally bullish on Hong Kong residential property, which means corrections like the present one in the relevant stocks are buying opportunities. · GREED & fear continues to assume that the Hong Kong government is not about to do anything, in terms of policy, to trigger a dramatic increase in residential property supply. Such a supply crunch remains a perfect breeding ground for an asset bubble if US short-term interest rates remain as low for as long as GREED & fear expects given the continuing popularity of Hibor mortgages. · The Hong Kong physical residential market has started to pick up in the past two months. In the mass residential market valuations are in no way excessive while rents are still rising. As for the luxury market, it is being fuelled by mainland buying, much of it seemingly price insensitive. Mainland buyers also tend to leave properties vacant thereby increasing upward pressure on rents. · GREED & fear remains convinced that Hong Kong will be a key epicentre of the anticipated Asian asset bubble. Investors should also not forget the continuing dramatic improvements in infrastructure which are shortening the distance between Hong Kong and “China”. CLSA CLEAN & GREEN: Please consider our environment before printing this email. The content of this communication is subject to CLSA Legal and Regulatory Notices These can be viewed at clsa.com or sent to you upon request.

To: captaintime who wrote (61025)	2/11/2010 10:52:52 AM
From: zebra4o1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217901

My boss is looking at a 60 acre place in the Astoria area - up near the border with Washington State. Looks like a rain forest up there, judging from his pictures.

To: captaintime who wrote (61025)	2/11/2010 7:02:36 PM
From: koan	2 Recommendations Respond to of 217901

>>Try the Oregon coast between Oceanside and Cannon Beach; a 2 hour drive to Portland, Oregon which is a decent city with good air connections to the far east.<< I agree. My older daughter lives in Portalnd and my younger daughter in Eugene where I will be moving shortly. Florence only 45 minutes away. The Oregon coast is so spectacular I could spend the rest of my life just watching it. Two years ago I spent the winter playing $20/$40 to $50/$100 limit poker (largest limit games I could find) between Seattle and The San Fran Bay area. I never took 5, I always drove 1 to see the beautiful Oregon coast stopping every 10 mintues to take in the grandure. I hope to die watching the Oregon coast. The waves crashing against the myriad rock outcrops close to shore is breathtaking.