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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Tara who wrote (6471)	11/4/1997 10:23:00 AM
From: McNabb Brothers	Respond to of 9285

Jon, Thank you for the very preceptive report. This morning I had decided the bears would have the slight advantage with CTXS. Now it appears that the bull flag formation was the key play after all. Looks like another case of when in doubt, do nothing. I will hold my small short position and look to sell $90 naked calls at some point. Mike

To: Jon Tara who wrote (6471)	11/4/1997 10:36:00 AM
From: Roger A. Babb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Jon, I am short ctxs at $74 average, will short more at $80. Not based on TA but on FA. They are doing some funny accounting with the MSFT payment. It is cash in the bank for sale of an asset back in May, but they are booking it as quarterly earnings, longs are saying look at all the cash plus these earnings, but it is the same money. Of the 13 million earnings last Q, almost 10 million was simply revenue recognition of the MSFT sale. And the MSFT revenue recognition will soon play out. What do they do next? a 2.5 billion market cap is very high for 13 million earnings, even higher for 3 million. PE = 48 or over 200 if you count msft revenue as asset sale. Sales growth is likely to flatten or drop when MSFT releases HYDRA and the PSR is already over 20 (over 30 excluding MSFT sale). It would take huge revenue growth to justify current market cap.