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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (61142)	2/14/2010 8:06:02 PM
From: prosperous	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217977

Some idle long weekend musings. Nikkei finance.yahoo.com^N225&t=my&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c= Dow finance.yahoo.com^DJI&t=my&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c= It seems to me both are taking a different path to a common outcome. Nikkei took 12 years from top in 1990 to hit a major bottom in equities and has been/will be straddling around in the range for a while. In the U,S the Dow is making (the long term chart is bearish) both an expanding triangle and a head and shoulder formation which will take 12 years to hit major bottom likely in 2012 from the top in 2000, in the 1000-3000 range and then go nowhere (range bound) from there for a while. Both nations have done very similar things for economy in terms of bailouts, printing etc and prolonged the de-leveraging and concomitant pain making sure more people enjoy it over longer time. The end result will likely be quite comparable, all that the US policy makers can boast is a different path was taken. If one were to grade the performance of policy makers, Japan would get a E whereas Fed would be an F since they have encouraged more speculation to the benefit of wall street along the way whereas Nikkei has de-leveraged quicker and had some semblance of stability for 8-9 years between 1992-2001 hovering between 13000-21000 in 2-3 year cycles. It is not clear if this was because of the policy differences or if the Japanese investors were quicker to realize that the stock markets were a losing proposition for them. It is also not clear if it has hit THE bottom yet and how many more lost decades for investors lie ahead. The US stocks will possibly see stability after the 2012 bottom when more investors have given up on the wall street casino, they still are a hopeful bunch and staying put. The Fed has not resolved any of the issues that caused the problem, will be a while for next growth cycle to begin when the markets would trade freely since the speculators have been given lifelines to speculate even more.