To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (91999 ) 2/18/2010 11:32:15 AM From: jbn3 1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) | Respond to Re ... It seems pretty clear that the best days for AAPL-the-stock are behind it - the stock has gone up 50x and there is no way it can do that again ... iPod: AAPL has about 70% of US market and has been maintaining that share for a couple of years. Unit sales were actually down this past quarter, although revenues were up, due to consumer transition to the Touch. So, we'll call it a "mature" market and unlikely to increase much. Although AAPL can increase market share in other international markets, I think it unlikely to be multiples of current share.Mac: AAPL now has about 8% of the market. And although it is growing market share rapidly in a slowly growing market segment, I can't see it growing 50x. I can visualize it increasing share to about 50%, or about six times.iTunes/Ap Store: Here I can see room for growth, but am totally unable to posit any parameters. This is especially true, since growth here is dependent on other revenue drivers -- iPods and iPhones. Further, AAPL has repeatedly told us that this endeavor is managed to be slightly better than "Break Even". iPhone: AAPL is a brand new entrant to the cell phone market -- and numerous pundits proclaimed that it would make a disastrous entrance. So with less than 1% of the total cell phone market, there is tremendous room for growth. If we arbitrarily set a total market share ceiling of 50%, AAPL could conceivably grow this sector by 50x. There is also tremendous competition and opposition, so it certainly won't be a cake walk. iPad: Not even a product yet... BUT ... the competition already considers it a major competitor. So from zero market penetration to even 30% would be huge.aTV: still just a hobby. But a hobby with potential. When Steve et al get around to moving aTV to a front burner, we could probably agree that it has some potential market available to it.
