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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Beachside Bill who wrote (238539)	2/16/2010 1:02:13 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

>>If the inland CA thinks it will hold housing prices while the coast falls than I am "California Dreaming".<< The coast will hold much better, it's unique and they really AREN'T making more of it. Inland OTOH is indistinguishable from Vegas and Phoenix, and will be mired in higher taxes/lower services for decades to come. So in short, I agree....<G>

To: Beachside Bill who wrote (238539)	2/16/2010 2:56:35 PM
From: Peter V	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Inland CA has already fallen a great deal. This blog says prices are somewhere between 1998 and 2002 prices: housing-kaboom.blogspot.com This blog has a chart suggesting the IE price decline has been around 55%, whereas LA County is 30%. It also shows that IE peaked back in 2006, whereas LA County peaked in 2007 inlandempireoutlook.org So it's true, maybe the 2002 cities will have to get back to 1998 prices or so. But 1998 was only three years after the bottom in 1995. How much farther can they go? Appreciation from 1995 to 1998 wasn't that steep, not like 2000-2007. Both this blog and the one above show that LA County is nowhere near even 2002 prices, and down only 38 percent from the peak. westside-bubble.blogspot.com This blog shows similar declines, and notes that LA County as a whole is only down 41 percent (although that seems high) westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com Note that average prices in the IE are close to the average price in the USA as a whole. Thus, on a percentage basis, I stand by my prediction that the Inland Empire will fall less from here than the coast. It may still decline some, but it is likely to go mostly sideways from here. THe recovery may be very long and drawn out, and thus buying IE houses as investments may still be premature. .