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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rnsmth who wrote (92131)	2/16/2010 4:43:18 PM
From: sylvester80	Respond to of 213177

You would be incorrect: blogs.barrons.com Apple: Is Street Too Optimistic On Dec. Qtr iPhone Sales? By Eric Savitz So, what happens if Apple (AAPL) sells a few less iPhones than the bulls are expecting? A couple of analysts raised that question this morning ahead of the company earnings report coming Monday for its fiscal first quarter ended December. As I noted earlier this week, Apple shares have been getting a boost from a pair of eagerly anticipated announcement: Monday’s earnings report, and next Wednesday’s unveiling of the long-awaited tablet. But the rally is making a few people nervous: * Macquarie analyst Phil Cusick today actually trimmed his iPhone forecast for the December quarter to 9 million units from 10 million, while upping his estimate on desktop Mac sales a bit to 874,000 from 837,000. He also trimmed his non-GAAP FY 2010 EPS forecast a tad, to $11.85, from $11.93. He also reduced his FY Q2 iPhone unit forecast to 6 million, from 8.5 million, anticipating a slower build rate ahead of a mid-year refresh of the phone. * Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Doug Reid thinks the December quarter will likely be well above his EPS forecast of $2.08 a share, and the Street at $2.05; he says the “whisper number” is around $2.12. Meanwhile, while Reid keeps his Overweight rating on the stock, he thinks near-term upside is limited, asserting that “tablet hype is already priced into AAPL shares,” with expectations for the quarter already well above the company’s guidance of $1.70-$1.78 a share. To move the stock meaningfully higher in the short run, he thinks, will take EPS above $2.40 or “an unexpectedly magnificent tablet product unveiling.” * Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi upped his FY Q1 EPS estimate today to $2.24, from $2.21; his revenue forecast is $12.6 billion, up from $12.42 billion, and ahead of the Street at $12.03 billion. For FY 2010, he now sees $8.35 a share, up from $8.26. Sacconaghi is forecasting gross margin of 36.6%, which is 260 points better than guidance and 100 points above the Street; he notes that over the last 11 quarters the company on average has beat its gross margin guidance by 335 points. On the other hand, he also says that “iPhone shipments will be the key issue this quarter,” and notes that his own forecast of 8.5 million units is below buy-side expectations of 10 million units or more. Write Sacconaghi: “While we continue to like Apple long-term as the best secular story in our coverage universe, we would not recommend adding to positions in the short-term as we believe that expectations on the forthcoming Tablet and iPhone sales in FY Q1 both appear high, and that strong EPS and margin performance in the quarter appear largely expected.”