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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rock_nj who wrote (128768)	2/21/2010 5:29:13 PM
From: burlegoat	2 Recommendations Respond to of 206087

"Natural Gas (NYM): (High: Oct//Low: Mar or Jul) Demand has tended to rise into Oct-Nov as industry builds inventory to meet cold-weather demand." This is from SPECTRUM COMMODITIES, they have a 10 year chart at spectrumcommodities.com burlegoat

To: Rock_nj who wrote (128768)	2/21/2010 11:06:02 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206087

NG Futures late winter to summer - Quehubo and several others have extensive experience with these matters.

To: Rock_nj who wrote (128768)	2/22/2010 12:00:04 AM
From: Archie Meeties	2 Recommendations Respond to of 206087

I'll save you the time as I reviewed the series recently. All seasonal patterns are too weak to be reliable except one - there is usually a peak in NG in late fall/early winter followed by sideways or down movement until the heating season is over. Everything else (Spring/Summer/Fall) is too variable to establish a reliable signal. In other words, based on historical data alone, a coin flip is no better at predicting the March - June or March - October price change. Best to look elsewhere regarding future prices at this juncture. You can crunch your own data from the data here. tonto.eia.doe.gov Brief summary of the #'s NG price change from March to June since 1985: 9 years +, 15 years - But before you take it as a suggestion to go short here, the mean change is +0.05 with a SD of 0.67 (ie both + and - change have near equivalent chances). Disclosure: I remain short UNG.