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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (61408)	2/22/2010 7:27:49 AM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217656

Pretty persuasive TJ. I now agree with you that a severe China crash has a less than 50% probability.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (61408)	2/22/2010 11:45:04 AM
From: Hawkmoon	2 Recommendations Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 217656

Hello hawkmoon, you wrote a lot. And so did you.. ;0) But you didn't address deposit insurance in China.. Nor do I think you're being honest with regard to the use of debt and leverage in China. Just because people are putting down 30% on an expensive piece of real estate doesn't mean it's not over-valued. It might make a difference if all RE transactions were cash only, with no mortgage, then I would agree with you. But few people can afford to purchase a house for cash. But 30% down still means 70% debt. That's leverage, isn't it? And if that property loses value, who's going to take the initial haircut, the purchaser or the bank? All the 30% does is provide more of a buffer for the banks, but does little for the buyer if their home depreciates 30%. And as I recall, HK RE lost close to 50% back in 1998 do to over-speculation. globalpropertyguide.com Of course, those prices have more than recovered, but that's still huge volatility. Btw, would you consider the following prices to be correctly indicative of HK real estate prices ATM: globalpropertyguide.com … is it not wonderful!? Obviously everything is a "rosy scenario" in HK.. That, at least is something you're "teaching" me.. ;0) Hawk