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To: Snowshoe who wrote (72647)	2/27/2010 11:32:04 PM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Snow, you are making the old mistake of confusing correlation with causation. It's a common, actually normal, mistake. <In Haiti, by contrast, there is no building code. > There is a building code in New Zealand and the government has got a financial catastrophe on its hands as a result and so have hordes of New Zealanders who put their trust in the stupid government authorities to ensure construction was sound. Ask Google, or Bing, about "leaky buildings". There is no law in Haiti to stop people building earthquake and hurricane resistant houses. In Wellington, when we lived there, I had no law telling me I had to do it, but I took out a chimney because of the earthquake hazard. I didn't want to have a chimney landing in our living room fireplace setting fire to the house with us possibly trapped inside. Also, contrary to official instructions, my instructions to the family were to flee outdoors at the first hint of shaking. Where we lived, there was nothing outside to fall on us. Official instructions are to hide under tables or in doorways. I also took out the hot water cylinder which had a wetback running off the chimney [it was high up and not stable]. A quick Google search and sure enough - still giving false instructions: <Drop, take cover, and hold on. Move only a short distance to a nearby safe place. Stay indoors until the shaking stops and you're sure it's safe to go outside. Stay away from windows, chimneys, and shelves containing heavy objects. If you're in bed, hold on and stay there, and protect your head and body with a pillow and blankets.> gns.cri.nz At the laboratory [which I became in charge of as a line manager [the manager reporting to me]] I told them to forget the official instructions to hide under the desks and tables and to run outside. Outside, there was nothing but sky. The building was fairly old and dodgy and probably not at all earthquake resistant. I also pointed out to them that being stuck inside with flaming phosphorus falling off the shelves could be detrimental to their health. And, by the way, the shelves should all have edges to stop things just sliding straight off onto the floor with minor shaking. That would require a slight lift to get it over the edge, but I guessed it was worth it. In a big earthquake, it would be such a mess it would be total destruction anyway so more resistance that shelf edges wouldn't be worth the effort [such as building cupboard doors on everything - which for all I know they probably require now]. It was pretty obvious that the modern house construction methods were going to leak - having watched them building them around the place. But the building standards and inspectors and authorities all signed off on them. Now there's a financial catastrophe Do you really need me to explain to you why Haiti is such a mess? It has nothing to do with too many private property rights, enforced contracts, police and security, freedom and self-determination. Mqurice

To: Snowshoe who wrote (72647)	2/28/2010 12:43:15 AM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

You just know these guys will have it right: [giggle] gns.cri.nz <We are GNS Science, a New Zealand government-owned research organisation offering the best in independent scientific and technical advice. Do we know what we're talking about? With 130 years of excellence in understanding earth sciences, we are the leading supplier of earth and nuclear scientific research and consultancy services in New Zealand - a very active geological environment. We have an international reputation for delivering quality advice and innovative research.> I wonder what they think of CO2 as a problem? We can predict it will be the left wing woes rather than "no worries mate". Hey, I've got an idea. I'll have a look through their website to see the big red warnings about building houses in Taupo and the vicinity, especially downwind, or at sea level around the Pacific Ocean coast. I have now had a look through their website and there's nothing much at all [or anything] I spotted warning about the biggie. But they do write this: <any future eruptive activity has to be watched out for, so that the sizes and styles of any eruptions, and their consequent threats to lives and property, can be forecasted. > I wonder where they hide the warnings about the threat to lives and property and children not wearing crash helmets in Taupo. They even know that crater lakes are a good place to look for warnings of imminent eruption, but they missed Lake Taupo as a Big Daddy of them all crater lake to be watched: geonet.org.nz Aha, here is some information: geonet.org.nz with detail on Taupo: geonet.org.nz <The Taupo eruption was the most violent eruption in the world in the last 5,000 years; it was a complex series of events. The first phases of the eruption produced a series of five pumice and ash fall deposits over a wide area of the central North Island, especially east of Taupo and beyond Napier into Hawke Bay. The eruption culminated with a large and very energetic pyroclastic flow that devastated an area of about 20,000 km2 and filled all the major river valleys of the central North Island with pumice and ash. These pumice deposits can still be seen today and many of the major rivers in the North Island carry large amounts of this pumice when in flood. Rounded pumice found on the beaches of the North Island have come from this eruption. The Taupo eruption took place from a line of vents near the eastern side of the modern lake. > But I can't find any probabilistic risk analysis, or information. No doubt it's all stashed away somewhere. A bit more detail here, volcano.si.edu But really, there's no recognition of the crazy idea of building a whole city down at water level in the crater lake of a caldera. It's reasonable that some economic activity would be worth doing there with significant risk, but to simply set up house there as a pleasant place to live seems absurd. Given the intrusion into our lives by Helengrad and the army of kleptocrats, you'd think they'd be all over that, for our own good of course, instead of forcing us with reams of regulations and an army of inspectorate to build leaky houses with decomposing timber [by law - it was illegal to use good treated timber - Greenies like natural wood that decomposes] Hmmm, more looking and it's getting better still - dates of the eruptions volcano.si.edu There's a cliff in Taupo with the dates of eruptions on signs on the strata [there was 30 years ago but maybe the signs have gone now]. Maybe they are doing a passable job after all. A quick scan of those dates, [more intricate than my cliff information] suggests I should increase my probability of eruption calculation. Mqurice