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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (109119)	2/28/2010 8:23:18 AM
From: Sunny Jim	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

<Millions of Unemployed Face Years Without Jobs 26.9 million is such a huge number that it is hard to equate to. Yet those are real people, many whose lives are permanently destroyed. Moreover, If my projections are correct, many of those jobs are not coming back for years, and most likely ever.> What puzzles me is that with such large numbers of people without jobs or adequate jobs, how can retail sales continue to hold their own? If people still had their house ATM or were increasing their credit card debt, I could see how they could keep spending at pre-recession levels. But people are paying down debt, not increasing it. Something just doesn't jibe IMO. With the current job situation, I would expect to see retail sales at something like 90% of the bubble years sales. Do you have any retail sales data that verifies the stress in the employment situation?

To: mishedlo who wrote (109119)	2/28/2010 10:27:57 AM
From: rich evans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Good article, Mish. A little too doom and gloom though. There is a huge underground economy not in the statistics. The household survey tries to capture it and showed a job gain of 785000 last month. Looking at the stats, the economy gained about 7 mill jobs from the bottom in 2001 when bush took office. Now is has lost the same amount. Back to square 1. Latest trends in payroll and household survey employment S easonally adjusted, numbers in thousands 1 Payroll survey estimates for December 2009 and January 2010 are preliminary and subject to revision. 2 The effects of population control revisions in January 2000 and January of 2003-10 have been smoothed out in the historical household survey employment estimates used here; thus, the changes shown above will differ from those calculated using the official estimates in the Employment Situation and in the public database available on the BLS w ebsite. See Appendix for further explanation. 3 This is a research series created from household survey employment to be more similar in concept and definition to payroll survey employment. Household survey employment is adjusted by subtracting agriculture and related employment, nonagricultural self employed, unpaid family and private household workers, and workers absent without pay from their jobs, and then adding nonagricultural wage and salary multiple jobholders. The effects of population c ontrol revisions also have been smoothed out in the historical data in this series. 4 The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has designated December 2007 as the most recent business cycle peak. NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007. Reference period Payroll survey employment 1 Household survey employment 2 Adjusted household survey employment 3 Over-the-month change December 2009-January 2010 -20 785 841 Over-the-year change January 2009-2010 -4,022 -3,660 -4,031 Since the business cycle peak 4 December 2007-January 2010 -8,424 -6,670 -6,786 Yearly employment numbers 2001 137,718 137,548 137,714 137,226 137,014 136,791 136,984 136,150 136,750 136,292 136,133 135,938 2002 135,587 136,319 136,054 135,998 136,406 136,278 136,271 136,558 137,150 136,851 136,360 136,261 2003 136,656 136,700 136,632 136,809 136,700 136,924 136,590 136,644 136,683 137,035 137,451 137,417 2004 137,873 137,930 137,829 138,043 138,202 138,510 138,878 138,883 138,785 139,016 139,501 139,383 2005 139,535 139,663 139,919 140,504 140,845 140,938 141,237 141,631 141,586 141,720 141,660 141,900 2006 142,400 142,690 142,999 143,018 143,320 143,570 143,420 143,809 143,964 144,446 144,619 145,043 2007 144,997 144,995 145,306 144,617 144,869 144,982 144,818 144,567 145,059 144,741 145,323 145,003 2008 145,839 145,578 145,580 145,706 145,418 145,159 144,901 144,568 144,397 144,048 143,276 142,554 2009 141,993 141,457 140,624 140,669 140,204 139,803 139,580 139,195 138,529 138,002 138,138 137,548 NOTE: This series reflects seasonally adjusted CPS employment that has been revised from January 1990-December 2009 to smooth out the effects of population control revisions introduced in January 2000 and January of 2003-10. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 5, 2010.

To: mishedlo who wrote (109119)	2/28/2010 11:47:17 AM
From: riversides	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

What Sarah Palin Doesn't Know Her obsession with the politics of grievance puts her at odds with Ronald Reagan. online.wsj.com Though it hasn't attracted wide attention, nothing Mrs. Palin has done recently has been worthier of notice than her endorsement of Rand Paul, now running in Kentucky's GOP senate primary. Dr. Paul, an opthamologist and radical libertarian, holds views on national security and defense that have much in common with those of the far left. Not to mention those of the considerable body of conspiracy theorists, antigovernment zealots, 9/11 truthers, and assorted other cadres of the obsessed and deranged who flocked to the presidential candidacy of his father Ron Paul, the congressman from Texas.

To: mishedlo who wrote (109119)	2/28/2010 1:17:15 PM
From: prosperous	Respond to of 116555

With the unemployment projections you have into future, what is a sustainable level of debt US can service in future with the projected deficits and tax receipts without causing a major dislocation in bond/currency market? clearly what the white house is projecting until 2019 does not seem sustainable.