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Gold/Mining/Energy : ARAKIS: HIGH RISK OIL PLAY (AKSEF) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7232)	11/4/1997 11:55:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Respond to of 9164

Zeev, The US sanctions only hurt the US companies if the NIF Junta/Sudan still controls the oil fields at the end of the war- right? Read tonight's story from Nairobi carefully as it contains more than one clue as to why the SPLA will eventually prevail IMO over the NIF Junta. BTW because of some events that transpired in South Africa earlier in the summer IMO do not expect the peace talks to result in concrete solutions until one side or the other prevails on the battlefield. Finally from an investor's perspective look for some sign of rapproachment between Arakis and the SPLA: Kenyan official reports progress at Sudan talks 05:52 a.m. Nov 04, 1997 Eastern By Buchizya Mseteka NAIROBI, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Southern Sudanese rebels and a government delegation are making ''commendable progress'' at peace talks being held behind closed doors in the Kenyan capital, a senior Kenyan government official said on Tuesday. David Kikaya, spokesman for Kenya's foreign ministry, told Reuters that the two sides locked in a bitter 14-year-old war would continue to talk until a meaningful agreement was reached. The talks are between veteran guerrilla leader John Garang's Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) and the Islamic-backed military government of Lieutenant-General Omar Hassan al-Bashir. ''The talks are continuing. The progress is commendable and that is why they are still talking to each other,'' said Kikaya. ''They will talk until something meaningful comes out of this,'' he added. The two warring parties have agreed to a news blackout on the talks, engineered by Kenyan President Daniel arap Moi in his capacity as chairman of the regional Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) grouping. Analysts said the talks which opened last Thursday were a direct result of lightning advances by Garang's forces over the last few months which have seen huge tracts of territory recaptured by a rejuvenated SPLA. The rebels are now besieging Juba, the capital of the southern region and the biggest prize in Africa's longest running civil war. Analysts said SPLA firepower and field tactics have received a great boost from Sudan's neighbours and Khartoum's rivals in Uganda, Eritrea and Ethiopia. Victory by Rwandan-backed Laurent Kabila's rebels in neighbouring Democratic Republic of the Congo, former Zaire, has also opened up new supply lines for the SPLA and added to its diplomatic and political muscle, they said. Garang, Uganda's influential leader Yoweri Museveni and Kabila are old friends from the 1960s from the Tanzanian capital Dar es Salaam, then a hotbed of leftwing African revolutionary doctrine. The mostly animist and Christian SPLA is fighting for self-determination in the southern region from Bashir's Moslem, Arabised north. Bashir on Saturday welcomed the talks, saying his government was ready for peace after 14 years of war. More than 1.3 million people have died from the war and war-induced causes since 1983. Thousands more have fled their homeland into exile in neighbouring countries. Bashir has signed a series of peace deals with small, weak bands of rebel groups from the south, mainly commanders such as Riek Machar who previously worked for Garang, but he needs the SPLA's stamp of approval for peace to reach the south. Both sides agreed in September to resume talks on the basis of a declaration of principles that enshrines southern self-determination and views Sudan as multi-religious and multi-ethni