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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (36866)	3/6/2010 3:07:56 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78648

TA is a rent slave for HPT. i think the posters in the Yahoo thread have it about right when they state that TA cash should last until 2011. At this point TA would fold and HPT would have to run those stations by themselves or rent them out to somebody else, supposedly at a lower rent. if somebody else takes them over, I would expect quite a few locations closures. I think if we value HPT, you need to look at normalized rents (which I think are going to be quite a bit lower than the current ones that TA is paying). HPT trades at 10x EBTIDA versus DRH's 13.5x. 13,5x EBITDA is certainly not cheap so if you are betting on Hotel stocks, you bet on a quick recovery of room rates and demand, otherwise it's hard to justify being in this sector right now. Has anyone looked at the Commercial RE debt REIT's STWD and ARI? I own a little ARI and used to own some STWD as well but sold out when they spiked a bit. Business model looks decent with the cheap financing but the management fees bother me. I do think that both vehicles should pay 10%+ when they have their capital fully deployed.