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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul e thomas who wrote (7555)	11/4/1997 5:46:00 PM
From: Done, gone.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13949

U.S. Firms Ahead In Race Against Millennium Bomb: techstocks.com

To: paul e thomas who wrote (7555)	11/5/1997 10:45:00 AM
From: paul e thomas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13949

ANALYSIS OF ANALYST RATINGS AND PROJECTIONS I have looked at the analyst ratings and earnings revisions for a number of Y2K service providers( IMRS,CBSL,MAST,CHRZ,KEA,CBR,ANLY,TSK).Over the last 90 days prices have fallen for the following(TSK -35%,CHRZ -21%,IMRS -19%,KEA -5%) and risen for (CBSL 35%,MAST 25%,CBR 19%,ANLY 10%).The strength in CBSL may be attributable to a major improvement in Analyst rating from 2.3 3 months ago to 1.4 now.The MAST imcrease in price may reflect the fact the Dec quarter has the highest sequential EPS growth rate forecast. The TSK price weakness may be due to a slight(.01$) downward revision in the December earnings forecast The Chrz weak price may reflect the analyts are not forecasting any earnings growth between March and the September quarter.The KEA weakness may reflect that KEA has the poorest Analyst rating of the 8 stocks(1.8 rating versus an average of 1.3). I am less sure of an explanation for the CBR price strength.Having said that I am totally baffled by the IMRS price weakness as IMRS has the best Analyst rating ( 5 Analysts with strong buy).The 1998 earnings forecast increased 25% in the last 90 days. Imrs has the best 5 year earnings growth rate at 42%(35 and 50 from the 2 Analysts with predictions). The DEC earnings forecast of .15$ and .16$ for the March quarter versus the .15$ for the Sept quarter and .11$ for June are very conservative (IMHO) but this is true for all of the stocks except CBSL.The analysts have raised their earnings forecasts for the December quarter every month for the last three. Since they already all have a strong buy recommendation for IMRS The stock price can not be moved by further analyst buy recommendation improvements. I have a model I have used to predict fair value of a stock that weights near term and longer range earnings forecasts and compares them with my own. This model indicates the fair market value of IMRS is 34.5$. It is built around the assumption that the next quarter eanrings will come in at my forecast. In the September quarter my earnings estimate was .01$ too low. The Analysts were .02-.04$ too low last time. My forecast was off because i didn't account from interest income from the cash raised in the secondary offering. I feel very strongly my forecast of .21$ in the next quarter will be much closer to the actual than the Analyst's .15$ they are currently forecasting