To: Andrew Vance who wrote (9440 ) 11/5/1997 7:33:00 AM From: RDavidson Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 17305
Andrew, Great post. I've been lurking here for weeks, while not watching the TPRO baby. IMHO, as Americans, we cannot even visualize the far east (read ChiCom) economy. Your basic, classic "command control" nation. No min wage, no social security, unemployment, worker's comp, OSHA, EPA, strikes or slowdowns, or even a whisper of individual free will. These guys have used deflation as a hammer against their neighbors. In any market they target, they seem to become the 500 # gorilla. Right now, temporarily at least, their deflationary pricing is seen by many to our advantage. Cheap non durable goods keep those prices falling in the WalMart ads. (Remember they used to brag about made in America...?) Consumers, absent real wage increases, spend a smaller share of their income on these goods. Look at the labels in shoes, on clothing, toys, etc. ...Made in China. The manufacturing in many sectors has been ceded to the ChiComs. Our only refuge from their deflation is in 3 areas: a) Service Sector, b) durables and other goods that have to be made here - new homes, production of perishables, etc. and c) TECHNOLOGY, where US manufacturers, enjoying a sector monopoly, can pay great wages, have large R&D budgets, and still make great returns. However, we seem to have an irrestable urge to sell technology to them cheap (helps with current FY earnings), contribute it as part of JV agreements (BA), or just watch them steal it, (copyrights, patents, espionage). Absent our Tech advantage, where the hell are we, what can we do that they won't or can't do for less? Business analyists are consistently amazed at the rate of modernization in Chinese manufacturing. How long can we preserve the lead before they are making P2 chips for 25 cents on the dollar? We seem to be placing almost no real barriers of entry to them via transfer of technology. Absent our tech, where can our economy create wealth in quantity? OK, I'll stop now and lurk for a while more... Best to all, R Davidson