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To: Peter Dierks who wrote (14309)3/10/2010 12:44:38 PM
From: RetiredNow  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 42652
 
If you want to see where the economy is headed you have to look at leading indicators. Jobs are a lagging indicator. In economic recoveries, the way it works is that the economy recovers first and the jobs come next. I highly recommend you keep on eye on ECRI. They're really good at explaining this stuff.

On a recent interview he talked about the recovery in jobs. One of the leading indicators he watches is temp hiring. THere's already been a big spike in that. In addition, you have to look at the average work week. When that starts to rise, as it already has, then you know that companies will start hiring, because existing workers are getting overworked. Another leading indicator are wages. If wages start to rise, then you know that job demand is increasing, because to hire the right people, companies are having to increase wages. Just some examples to think about when thinking about what a recovery looks like and how that leads to jobs.