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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DebtBomb who wrote (27358)	3/11/2010 9:13:06 AM
From: Real Man	1 Recommendation Respond to of 71456

I think the bottom of this crisis is still ahead of us, not behind us. However, the true situation lies in between what the bankers and gold bugs tell us. IMHO. -g- In particular: 1) 700 Trillion in derivatives is notional amount, the true risk is much less than that. That isn't to say the pyramid is not very dangerous, since the real values are somewhere in tens of trillions. 2) The long term SS/Medicare liability for the US can be fixed by reform, which must increase taxes and cut benefits. The public portion of the debt is not yet in dangerous territory. 3) The credit bubble was epic, that pretty much ensures a long term rut in the economy. If reforms are put in place, the real economy will contract a lot before it starts expanding again. 4) They might not do what's needed, rather, do what's easy, as they have been doing. Then we will hyperinflate and things will get into permabearish territory. 5) We will come out of this mess, eventually, but it will take time and effort. A long time and a big effort.