To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (27439 ) 3/14/2010 8:14:29 AM From: Real Man 1 Recommendation Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 71456 Deflationary and derivative ka-boom, I believe. However, a note to the bears - it can be delayed because govt stimulus will run throughout 2010. The Fed does monitor economic activity. They have hordes of govt. workers doing just that. I do believe Real Estate market will deteriorate considerably if or when the Fed stops buying MBS (where the printing goes), and the govt. cash for shacks program runs out (end of April). Moreover, the alt-A "true bubble" loans are just starting to reset, the resets are scheduled to pick up considerably this year. That said, the resets are no longer the main problem for the Real Estate market. The housing bubble collapse illness has infected the PRIME Re market because many folks are out of jobs. That problem is far bigger than resets, and foreclosures will immediately pick up once the govt. gets off their program. That will likely drive housing prices even lower in many locations. These are the risks. I believe they will immediately show up once the Fed stops printing to buy MBS, and deflationary dynamics will manifest itself. Once it does, I believe the Fed will restart the printing press. That, however, remains to be seen. Sovereign defaults and devaluations will also pick up around the globe. Interest rates in the United States could go up, simply because of the enormous budget gap that requires financing. Our govt. has to sell more bonds than the Chinese, and there could be few buyers (Who has the money these days, or wants them? Xept the Fed) In other words, we are not out of the economic hurricane, we are in it's eye, where it's calm. IMHO.