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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE ANT who wrote (61981)	3/14/2010 8:58:50 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218055

Biggest recession in history. We passed the test. We would have to deal with this 23 billion trade: We export to China: USD10.75 Billion We import from China: USD12.61 Billion Next I will make scenario for a China collapse of their

To: THE ANT who wrote (61981)	3/14/2010 9:00:06 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218055

All issues will go under the microscope. First we should establish, without any shade of doubt, that China has it coming. That can be based on my assumption based concept: Message 25929212 assumption Once this is established we can evaluate the possible scenarios of this outcome. Else we waste our time building scenarios for an outcome that will not happen.

To: THE ANT who wrote (61981)	3/15/2010 3:53:15 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218055

A couple of points on How to read Brazil. LATAM pendulum has a tendency to swing from one extreme to another. The idea is how can we put the wool over the eyes of the general public. Not that this is a prerrogative of Brazil and you know several countries and know that this is the aim of every governing body in the planet. Lula distribute a bit of wealth, (Brazil had the sixth worse distribution of income in the world) and the rich people could no put the ignorant masses in the streets against him. They did this against Collor in 1992, manouevering the masses for their own benefit and the masses went along. The rich caste slowly is coming out saying, (and using good argumentation, mind you) that the state is getting to big and too strong allied with oligarchs and oligopolies. As if alliances with oligarchs and oligopolies was a new thing!!! They loved that for the last two centuries. But if the poor class is getting a little bit, they dislike it. Everyone and his uncle is clamoring for more education. But what were they doing when Brazil was investing 70% of the money in 500.000 university students and 30 million of the basic education were trying to get educated with the remaining 30%? The lobby of the middle class and the university caste would not accept even a 60% - 40% split!!! And now the Brazilian society complains!! They talk about old issues if they have been discovered today. Again a trick to avoid showing the problem is as old as Brazil. I suspect, because the non-educated are doing badly the jobs for which they were not educated and receiving more money for it and they complain. Now for the reforms you wrote about: If you read too much The Economist you end up seeing what I discovered after being a subscriber for over a decade until I dropped it. In page 22 they defend a certain point of view for, saying, Germany when talking about labor reform. In the page 56 they defend a totally different point of view for the same issue affecting say, Brazil labor reform. I stopped reading it (I only read it in the long flights) because I discovered they are a limited publication and in over 50% of the cases I know more than they do. The Economist says this and that needs to e reformed. And they love democratic nation-states. Democratic nation-states cannot be reformed. That because the people will punish the politicians that proposes and implement reforms. See Obama health reform. But go back a little bit. See closing the military basis. It had to be farmed out the political process to e achieved. See labor reform in Germany. I like the Germans because they force fed Hartz Laws. That only because the Germans are a clever people. They see the reform as an advantage to gain competitiveness against their neighbors. Germans also did that when they have harmony between capital and labor while their neighbors were striking and lose working hours. Back to the subject reform. England industry went to the dogs because they could not reform labor laws. It required they see the abyss to allow Thatcher to do it. SUMMARY: I am for the reforms: Judiciary, Education, Social Security and they are overdue. But do not do an Economist and single out Brazil as if the issues there were different. That they could be solved by a stroke of pen. Or thing: look those stupid Brazilians,. So easily to see their problems and they are unable to see and act. Show me countries doing reforms right now. I mean a real country, not city state

To: THE ANT who wrote (61981)	3/15/2010 4:43:29 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218055

There is a level where the people live. They are all going about their daily business and they hardly stop to think or talk about the issues me and you discuss here. They should. But they don’t. And they don’t because they fail to see the connection between what is going on the levels above them. You see the streets and the people, the bakery, their day to day problems This is level one where 190 million people live. Then you have the information disseminated by all media. Those people know that the mass out there is dying to be fed something that either makes them feel good. Or something that makes them enraged. That media plays in the emotions of that ignorant mass. And the ignorant mass is not the guy dressed in Atletico Mineiro jersey with a machete cutting sugar cane in the field. I mean the middle managers, engineers, dentist, people who have 15 years in a school system. This people are fed by the media. They know their readership and give them what they want. All of it with a hidden agenda trying to boost up a case of someone. Trying to torpedo an image of someone else. Me and you look a lot to certain segment of that media: the one devoted to economic issues ,as you and me do not give a damn about local politics. The difference between me and you and the usual people who are fed with ‘Veja’ or the Jornal Nacional on TV, is that we want to know what is going on. We want to read and listen something that needs teeth to sunk on it. That is how our brains –mine and yours- are wired. That is why we can synthesize what we are fed. That does not happen with the normal people. When we get normal people trying to discuss with guys like me and you, you get a MQ. :-) Let me tell you something: Lula wants to be UN boss. Did he say that? No! But he wants to be. Thus his foreign inroads: Honduras, Cuba, Chavez, Ahmadinejad,, Israel etc. The SOB does not even speak French or English, Klaser!! It is just a matter of reading the news and putting A and B together. As soon as his hopes are dashed and he goes enjoy his retirement, the foreign policy goes back to its old track. That is the benefit of knowing how to read. You do not waste time analyzing what is just a job seeking exercise.

To: THE ANT who wrote (61981)	3/15/2010 5:33:42 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218055

Move arms and legs out of the process is good. “Brazilian minimum wage is up 10X in US $” is the mechanism whereby employers will remove the arms and legs out of the process as their price goes up. It is long overdue. Cheap arms and legs must be relegated to Chinese and Africans who have surplus people. If arms and legs are cheap they are mis-employed. Once the young guy and girl discover that there are no gas station attendant jobs, porters, drivers, and security gates- he moves his ass and try to get some education that will enable him to get a job where he will contribute to the economy. Our oligarchs and oligopolysts (not to mention our kleptocrats) love cheap man power. Gardner, driver, cook nanny.... All of them using buses and moving back and forth. OECD countries are no different. They pay people not to disturb: pay unemployment money so that the system is not forced to employ arms and legs. They stay at home, leaving the public transport and streets free for the ones who are producing. The OECD countries are efficiency freaks: Anything that can be done by a ‘mais escuro’ (‘darker one’), is farmed out. And off goes the job to Bangalore. We need people assembling machinery, rather than dig trenches, backfilling and compacting with muscle power By the way wife told me: ‘Diarista’ (daily cleaner who used to come once a week), no longer interested in BRL60 per working day. She jacked up to BRL80

To: THE ANT who wrote (61981)	3/15/2010 6:22:41 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218055

Why people do things illegally in Brazil. Because they are crooks? No. Because the government is stupid. I just renewed my drivers license. Last I had done it legally was 1986. Government made impossible for me to do it legally. Why? I was abroad. Embassies do not renew drivers licence. I go to Brazil but must be done in São Paulo a city I do not live in for the past 25 years and only like to see from inside a plane taking off to Curitiba This time I did legally. Flawlessly. With no waste of time. Before I would pay for someone to get me a new one in São Paulo where I got my drivers license some 100 years ago. This time they said: Be present in person. Do ‘defensive driving’ written test and ‘notions of first aid’. I though: ‘Estou fodido’ Easily done. Check in the Internet, Downloaded the material to learn numbers of emergency and fire dept and such. All the rest I know already. Read all. I went there and my file was in the network. (Before it would take a year to move paper 400Km down south to Curitiba and they would lose them). They crosschecked me with the info in the file to avoid another person stealing my identity. Took photo, finger printing and signed. All digital. (Wonderful Homeland Security technology) Next day did the exam. Passed and the document was in my house 5 days later. If governments make things sensible we gladly oblige! If government are silly, life has to move on. I paid BRL73,89 I used to pay USD200 to get my drivers license renewed before.

To: THE ANT who wrote (61981)	3/26/2010 8:55:11 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218055

Sky-High Interest Rates Come Without a Price: Alexandre Marinis March 25, 2010, 9:15 PM EDT Commentary by Alexandre Marinis March 26 (Bloomberg) -- In most countries, an interest rate increase can be as damaging to a presidential campaign as a sex scandal. Brazil isn’t like most countries. So while most leaders fear that high rates might curb economic growth or raise unemployment and turn off voters, Brazilians manage not to be all that concerned with the country’s sky-high high interest rates. That’s good news for President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who wants to see his cabinet chief and hand-picked candidate Dilma Rousseff become Brazil’s next leader later this year. Latin America’s largest economy is growing at an annualized rate of 8 percent, analysts are forecasting higher inflation, credit is expanding and government officials don’t want to curb spending. As a result, higher interest rates are likely. Brazil’s inflation-adjusted, or real, annual interest rate is about 4 percent, among the highest in the world. Still, some suggest the country’s central bankers will raise rates only slightly -- or delay any move -- before the presidential elections scheduled for October. Others say monetary policy somehow will be tied to central bank President Henrique Meirelles’s possible decision to resign soon in order to run for office in his home state of Goias. This speculation is off the mark. Finance Charges Since 2003, the relationship between Brazil’s Selic benchmark interest rate and the president’s popularity has been weak. The length of time consumers are granted to pay off credit has had much more of an impact. When buying a car or a refrigerator, Brazilians rarely focus on the interest rate they pay to finance the purchase. Instead, they pay attention to the size of the monthly payment and how much it eats into their budget. Longer duration loans have smaller installments, although the interest expense is larger. In 2008, the central bank increased the country’s benchmark interest rate to 13.75 percent from 11.25 percent. Contrary to what you might assume, Brazilians weren’t upset by the move. In fact, the government’s approval rating rose 11 points, to 69 percent of those surveyed by Ibope, an independent Brazilian polling company. The anomaly is explained by what happened during this period to average consumer credit terms, which increased to 486 days, from 451, according to central bank data. With an extra month to pay for things, Brazilians applauded the government even though they were paying higher interest costs. Public Approval Last week, the National Confederation of Industry, which is usually critical of Brazil’s high interest rates, released a poll showing that a majority of the population approves of the government’s interest-rate policy, something that hasn’t happened since 2003. On March 17, in a close vote that surprised most analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, the central bank decided to keep the Selic rate unchanged for the eighth month in a row at a record low 8.75 percent. Most of the 100 analysts surveyed by the central bank on March 19 expect this rate to increase to 9.25 percent on April 28, when the bank’s directors meet again. Analysts forecast that the Selic will climb more and peak at 11.25 percent in October, around the time of the election. As the polls suggest, the Selic rate doesn’t affect the government’s popularity and won’t necessarily hurt the chances of Lula’s candidate winning the presidency. That’s why those who argue that Brazil’s monetary policy will be shaped by the electoral cycle are wrong. Economic Drivers The timing and the size of Brazil’s next interest-rate hike won’t be dictated by Meirelles’s decision to leave the bank, by the political inclinations of his likely successor, or by the elections. It will be driven by the pace of Brazil’s economic growth and by actual and expected inflation rates. The 2.5 percentage-point rise in the Selic rate that analysts expect for 2010 matches the 2008 increase. And it’s just as unlikely to damage Lula’s popularity or stifle support for Rousseff. The only sure thing is that Brazilians will soon be spending more money on interest payments for their purchases. Any concern about the electoral consequences of interest rate hikes is misplaced, unless the average length of consumer credit starts to shrink. Click on “Send Comment” in the sidebar display to send a letter to the editor. --Editors: Steven Gittelson, James Greiff To contact the writer of this column: Alexandre Marinis at amarinis1@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this column: James Greiff at jgreiff@bloomberg.net