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Strategies & Market Trends : 99 RS stocks--WATCH THEM FLY HIGHER AND HIGHER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mike M who wrote (427)11/5/1997 9:31:00 AM
From: Christopher  Respond to of 836
 
Mike, Thanks a lot for the info
I looked at IBD this morning. GUMM has EPS of 75, RS of 48,
and ACC/DIS of C which means the number of shares sold are
equivalent to the number of the shares bought(I am not sure if
you are familiar with IBD terminology). Also IBD indicate that GUMM
was down 13% during last 10 weeks. In any case, it sounds like it
is a good buy. I will get some shares today. Thanks again.

Chris



To: Mike M who wrote (427)11/6/1997 2:19:00 PM
From: Christopher  Respond to of 836
 
Mike, Tell me what you think.
Below is a response I got from a guy on the GUMM thread. Tell
me what you think about what he says? He does not think that GUMM will come back. Also, have you bought
GUMM yourself yet?

Read this from their most recent 10Q. If you subtract out the barter credits (which are not genuine sales and a huge red flag when such credits are used to pump up revenues just so that those who don't look any further than eps figures get suckered in), revenues have actually been decreasing. What they have been doing is foisting old inventory on an ad firm in exchange for advertising credits (which GUMM also has to partially pay for). Anyway, read on:

<< Net Sales. Net sales increased by $829,639 or 72%, to $1,983,533 for the
three months ended June 30, 1997 compared to $1,153,894 for the three months
ended June 30, 1996. The increase in sales was a result of $1.4 million of
discontinued and excess inventories sold in a barter agreement that the Company
entered into in December, 1996 with Active Media Services, Inc. and
barter agreement entered into in April, 1997 with SKR Resources, Inc. The Active
Media, Inc. agreement has now been completely shipped and the products sold in
the agreement consisted of ChromaTrim, CitrusSlim, Vita ACE and gum from the
Jack Lalanne line of products. The Company shipped 68% of the $438,000 agreement
with SKR Resources, Inc. that consisted of the DentaHealth product.>>



To: Mike M who wrote (427)11/6/1997 3:29:00 PM
From: Christopher  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 836
 
Mike, More info. What do you think?

Anaxagoras makes some good points below. What do you think?
Would you wnat to buy shares right now like I did? WIll the third
quarter trigger more buy or more sell? Your thoughts would be appreciated.

To: Christopher (16 )
From: Anaxagoras Thursday, Nov 6 1997 2:44PM EST
Reply #17 of 17

Hi Chris.
I was short this stock several months ago and had to close out in order to chase a better prospect at the time, and I never got back to this one, although there might be some dumping coming sometime in Nov., due to an S-3 filing, if I remember correctly, that might make this worth reconsidering from the bearish position. Dang, I just wish I had some free margin at the moment. :-(

Anyway, I'm not up on the details, but those deals you mention may simply be stuffing the channel at this point (check their revenue recognition policy in the 10K, if you're interested). Also bear in mind that the actual sales figures for these deals are fairly small, although their recent reorder deal was for $500K. Anyway, make sure you study the filings and add up the revenue figures from all the PR announcements they've made the past few months, and then ask yourself if this company is really worth the $50 million it is currently bid at in the market place. Remember that their revenues for last quarter, even inflated with the barter credits, was shy of $2 million, so that gives a generous annual revs. based on that run rate of $8 million, which in turn gives us a whopping PSR over 6- and for what? A company that makes gum and goes negative cash flow in doing so. There's gotta be a better place to put your money, IMO. Again, I've been wrong lots of times before, and maybe I'm all wet on this one, but them's me thoughts. :-)

Anaxagoras