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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (5488)	3/17/2010 11:19:51 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26251

Ultimately, the Fed is irrelevant. That is to say, the Fed can forestall but not prevent the onset of the next leg down in the secular bear to new lows. I see a 50%/50% chance of the S&P falling below 400 by the first quarter of 2012 and a 95% chance of it falling below 500 during the same time period. I still favor the next leg down to begin by late August 2010. However, the most recent exhaustion move in this market has me rethinking the start date.