To: Brumar89 who wrote (78574 ) 3/23/2010 11:20:07 PM From: Sully- 1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 90947 Health Care and Life Expectancy By: Jonah GoldbergThe Corner For a number of reasons, I’ve been going a bit Galt during the Great Transformation to social democracy. I don’t have too much to add to the zone-flooding coverage already on display at NRO, though I’m sure more will come to me in the days and weeks ahead. I do want to commend this post by Megan McArdle, because I think it’s both good and a good example of the sort of stuff folks on the right should be doing. I’m all in favor of invoking first principles, American exceptionalism, the Constitution, and all sorts of arguments grounded in morality and philosophy. But it’s also important to start immediately building the case that the left’s cure-all won’t cure -- isn’t curing -- anything. McCardle runs through eight predictions of what will happen next in terms of the specific outcomes of this massive and ill-conceived social experiment. She runs through all of the wonderful things supporters have said will happen thanks to Obamacare and she explains why she thinks such promises are hollow. Let me focus on one. She notes that Nick Kristof insists that we will see massive improvements in American life expectancy thanks to Obamacare (note to Ramesh: Kristof runs with T. R. Reid’s flimsy abortion arguments as well). Kristof, whose historical analysis glides right over such things as inoculations, antibiotics, and medical improvements generally, claims that the history of rising life-expectancy is the history of expanding health-care coverage. Obviously, there’s some truth to that. But the low-hanging fruit has already been picked. Kids get inoculated in America and if they don’t, it’s not because of a lack of access. Anyway, I’m glad Kristof is on record, because liberals have been insisting that our low life-expectancy is one of the key reasons why Europe’s system of nationalized health care is superior to ours. Hence, all liberals who invoked this disparity should be now be held to accountable to the claim. McCardle writes, in part: <<< I do not think that there will be a noticeable kink in the trend line around 2014. The death rate jumps around quite a lot, so there may be a big drop (or increase) in 2014, neither of which would be meaningful. By 2025, however, I'm skeptical that we'll see a major inflection in the trend. >>> I’m even more skeptical. As Mark Steyn and others around here have noted (including yours truly), America’s “low” life-expectancy doesn’t have much to do with health-insurance. Yes, obviously it has something to do with it. And of course there are plenty of anecdotes that feed into this argument. But the simple fact is that when Americans die has a lot more to do with diet, alcohol, guns, cars, genes, and culture. Britain’s life-expectancy is a whopping 79.4. America’s is 78.2. Cuba’s is 78.3. Britain and Cuba have had socialized medicine for half a century or more. America hasn’t, until this week. What I love is the idea that we need to have this wrenching transformation of the system in order to move our standing a few tenths of a percent up the charts (I’m stipulating that nobody believes Obamacare is really about bending the cost curve downward. After all, nobody argues we need to extend life-expectancy to cut costs). Still, I suppose you could predict that improved access to healthcare will close this horrendous gap. But I doubt that. Consider that Robert Ohsfeldt and John Schneider factored out injuries (intentional and unintentional) from life-expectancy statistics and found (in The Business of Health ) that Americans who don’t die in car crashes or homicides live longer than people in any other Western country. That would partly explain why American life-expectancy at higher age 65 is than Britain’s. But even if you don’t buy that finding entirely (I’m a bit skeptical), the simple fact remains that there is just way too much else going on to rely on these absurd reductio ad healthcarum arguments (don’t even get me started on the bogusness inherent to debates over infant mortality). According to the 2006 study Eight Americas , Asian American women have a life-expectancy of 87 (in Bergen County, N.J., it is 91 years). Asian Americans as a group have a life-expectancy of 84.9 years. Their per-capita income is $21,556. Second-generation Asian American women live three years longer than women in Japan -- the longest-living national group. Meanwhile, American Indians in South Dakota, have an average life expectancy of only 58 years (and they already have access to the Indian Health Service, run by HHS). Black inner-city men do almost as badly, living to 66.7 years. White folks in the Northern Plains live longer than most other whites, especially whites from Appalachia and the Mississippi Valley. Now maybe you can look at all that and say, expanding coverage will iron-out the discrepancies. But I can’t. Oh and, just to be clear, the report found that the variation in life-expectancy was significantly greater than the variation in health-insurance or access to medical care. In other words, there are bigger things at work. .