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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron who wrote (10153)	3/23/2010 3:26:07 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24225

Deja vu all over again :>) News dump, today's TOD. You can link here theoildrum.com to follow up, but ... The dragon and the elephant in a contest for oil The elephant appears to be trailing the dragon through the jungles of the oil world. The state-owned Indian Oil Corporation is in talks to acquire Gulfsands Petroleum, a UK company active in Syria. It was only last August that Sinochem, China’s fourth-largest oil company, bought Emerald Energy, Gulfsands’s partner in Syria. Is this a battle India can win? Is it a battle India should even be fighting? Yemen's Big Concern In 2002,Yemen’s oil production peaked at more than 450 000 barrels of oil per day. A few years later, in 2006, Yemen produced almost 390 000 barrels of oil per day (140 million barrels annually). Of this oil, 55 million barrels (40% of the production) were used by Yemen itself, and the rest – 85 million barrels – was exported. Two years later, in 2008, Yemen produced only 305 000 barrels of oil per day (110 million barrels annually), and during the first 10 months of the year almost 40 million barrels were exported. If we assume that the country managed to export 50 million barrels in total throughout the year (which is doubtful, since oil production was declining), domestic consumption has risen from 55 million barrels to 60 million barrels (55% of the production) in two years. This is in line with figures indicating that domestic consumption rose by another 2.5 million barrels from 2008 to 2009. Chavez battered by energy crisis CARACAS, Venezuela (UPI) -- With no substantial rain in sight, the electricity crisis hitting Venezuela is creating an opening for political opposition to President Hugo Chavez. El Niño in Venezuela: Hugo Chávez’s "Katrina" Moment? Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has been in power for more than ten years, during which time he has deflected numerous electoral challenges, a recall effort, a coup d’etat and even an oil lock out. A politically adroit statesman, he has demonstrated enormous staying power throughout all these political crises. Yet, Chávez’s luck may have finally run out: a devastating El Niño-linked drought has recently ravaged Venezuela and the government has been forced to undertake conservation measures for water and electricity. Hardly amused, some are holding Chávez responsible for the energy crunch and the drought could exact a heavy toll on the Venezuelan president in September’s legislative elections. What is causing Venezuela’s energy crisis? Venezuela cuts power to 'heavy' electricity users Dozens of hotels, restaurants, office buildings and other businesses went dark Monday after failing to meet a government target of reducing electricity usage by 20 percent amid a deepening energy crisis. Caracas' state electrical utility announced that it shut off supply to 42 businesses for 24 hours to punish users that have not cut usage enough as required under government measures adopted last month. Hotels warned guests to leave ahead of time, and restaurants were deserted and dark. Some business owners said they have done their best to conserve, and called the daylong blackout abusive. Balochistan: Its Importance For The Iran-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline Balochistan, the size of Texas and that accounts for 44 per cent of Pakistan and 16 per cent of Iran’s landmass, is a strategically important area. By virtue of its energy resources and its location, it is key to the energy supply to South Asia, including Pakistan. The country’s mounting energy crisis and the growing demand for energy security in the region have magnified Balochistan’s economic and strategic importance. Pakistan: Energy crisis With the summer fast approaching in many parts of the country, attention is once again turning to the country’s energy deficit and the need for more power in the years ahead. But the Iranian ambassador to Pakistan has expressed surprise that an offer to supply over 1,000 megawatts of electricity from Iran has not been fast-tracked. A Memorandum of Understanding was signed in December 2008 between the two countries, however Ambassador Mash’allah Shakeri has complained that no one in Pakistan has tried to move the issue forward. Tanzania: Power rationing spells doom or economy, analysts warn The latest spate of rolling power blackouts in the country will have far-reaching consequences on the economy and reverse gains already made in boosting GDP growth and taming inflation to single-digit levels, a university don has warned. Indonesia: Govt expects to remove electricity subsidy by 2014 The government expects to remove the electricity subsidy completely by as early as 2014 so that it will have more funds available to fight poverty and improve healthcare directly for the poor, a minister has said.. “We hope we can fully implement the economic tariffs for electricity by between 2014 and 2015,” Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Darwin Zahedy Saleh said in Jakarta on Monday. Tajikistan looks to solve energy crisis with huge dam It is the Tajik government's answer to decades of energy shortages. Rogun hydropower plant sits 110km (68 miles) east of the capital, Dushanbe, on the river Vaksh. When it is finished, the planned 335m (1,100ft) dam will be the tallest in the world. For a mountainous country with thousands of glaciers but no hydrocarbons, harnessing the power of water is the obvious solution.

To: Ron who wrote (10153)	3/24/2010 10:14:30 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24225

Now, maybe :>) The peak oil crisis: a breakthrough? by Tom Whipple In the years since it became widely recognized that world oil production would likely go into irretrievable decline early in the 21st century, no national government has yet to officially recognize that a major paradigm shift is in the offing and begin planning for it. Those governments that respond to questions on the subject usually pointed to International Energy Agency projections indicating that all would be well for many years. Even as the evidence mounted that another 40 years of increasing oil production and economic growth probably was not the cards, no major political leader has stepped up to face reality. For a major political leader to publicly acknowledge that world oil production is soon going into an unstoppable decline is a very dangerous undertaking for the implications are unpalatable to most. If a politician were to take the next step and start talking about remedies for falling oil supplies - conservation, fuel-efficient cars, mass transit, perhaps even rationing - it would be almost certain political suicide. Given our recent experience with global warming, in which a majority of the of the U.S. population now doubts that it is being caused by excessive burning of fossil fuels, one can only imagine the reaction if someone proposed taking serious and expensive steps to deal with peak oil. Given the political environment, which admittedly is worse in the U.S. than in Europe, it came as a surprise that last weekend Britain's Energy Minister summoned a meeting of business leaders to discuss the government's response to a decline in global oil production should it actually be imminent. Just last summer, a UK government formally rejected the notion that the demand for oil would soon overtake available supplies leading to much higher prices and global economic disruptions. The new initiative came as a result of a report that was published last month by the UK Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security entitled "The Oil Crunch: a Wake-up Call for the UK Economy." Message 26311632 The report was well publicized in the British media, but received little coverage on this side of the Atlantic. Britain of course will have parliamentary elections in May and the report's authors took care to note that the next government, which could serve a five year term, is likely to be dealing with declining oil production which is likely to start by 2014. Given that the election will be a hard fought one and given the publicity surrounding the report, Her Majesty's government decided it was politically safer to recognize and agree to study peak oil rather than ignoring the issue yet one more time. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 'There are major downsides that would come with official recognition that imminent peak oil is real' -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- With an election only weeks away, nothing is likely to happen concerning the matter until after the party and strength of the new government is known. Under a parliamentary system, a government with a safe majority is relatively free to implement any policies it sees fit. Unlike in the United States, a British prime minister could decide that declining oil production is an imminent threat and immediately begin to implement policies to deal with it. Does an admission by a British government, that there might be something to this peak oil business after all, really have any significance? This will have to wait until after the election. The UK at the minute is faced with very severe economic problems including dire warnings that the country may be facing its most severe crisis since the Normans invaded in 1066. Just where the threat of peak oil fits in the firmament that faces the next British government is hard to say. In present day Britain even the likelihood that oil imports will start dropping in a few years could pale in comparison to the possibility that the nation's debt might default or the monetary system could collapse even sooner. Should the British conclude that major revisions are needed to the nation's energy policies prior to the next oil-shortage-induced price spike, the question remains whether this will have any effect on the United States where most are wedded to their cars and public transit is anathema to many. Obviously there will be an element of setting a good example and should the UK and other European countries publicly acknowledge that oil depletion is an imminent danger it will all most certainly be noted in the U.S. media and Congress. Recent political history in the U.S., however, does not bode well for official recognition of peak oil or major governmental action to mitigate the effects of some sort of major and prolonged increase in oil prices. While the current U.S. administration is implementing many policies to establish sources of renewable energy in the U.S., this is publicly advertised as efforts to combat global warming and wean the U.S. off of foreign oil. Most of these efforts have a time horizon of years or decades rather than the months a realistic acceptance of peak oil would demand. There are major downsides that would come with official recognition that imminent peak oil is real and that the country must prepare. First is simply being believed. The debate over whether the decline in global oil production is 4 or 40 years away has been going on for over a decade - and the battle lines are already drawn. As we have seen in the debate over climate change, there are well financed special interests waiting to tell people what they want to hear - which is that peak oil will come in somebody else's lifetime. The second problem that nobody wants to hear is that mitigating peak oil will cost and cost and keep on costing. In the current economic environment the chances that the U.S. Congress would take expensive, painful, and disruptive action to mitigate peak oil currently is close to zero. Given these political realities there is little to do but wait. While the events in London this week offer a glimpse of what will happen some day, that day is likely to be some years away. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tom Whipple is a retired government analyst and has been following the peak oil issue for several years. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ energybulletin.net ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~