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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (10156)	3/24/2010 12:56:38 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 24213

ace on March 23, 2010 - 12:51am Thanks, Rembrandt! Your Fig 4 above shows world liquids production on a bumpy plateau since 2005 even though oil prices increased significantly from 2005 to 2008. Yesterday, Sir David King, UK former chief scientist, said that world oil reserves are exaggerated by one third. telegraph.co.uk. Consequently, I believe that world liquids production has already peaked in July 2008 and will decline slowly as shown by my forecast below. There is a good chance that oil prices will exceed $US100 around the middle of this year as demand is forecast to be greater than supply starting in July. We'll find out if OPEC will increase production to meet this demand as non OPEC production is in a declining trend as shown by your Fig 1. [new] Chicken Little on March 23, 2010 - 6:49am Do you mean liquids or conventional oil? Conventional oil for non-OPEC perhaps, but I think there is still room for growth in total liquids given the planned additions in NGLs and ethanol. And do you mean total world production or just non-OPEC? [new] ace on March 23, 2010 - 11:16pm I mean liquids peaked in July 2008. There is still room for growth from NGLs and bio-fuels. However, that growth will probably not be enough to compensate for the decline in world crude, condensate and oil sands production as shown below. You can also see from the forecast that whether remaining URR is 0.83 trillion barrels (TB) or 1.08 TB, there will still be a decline. Sir David King's recent estimate of world reserves is between 0.85 and 0.90 TB. telegraph.co.uk. This means that the forecast could be closer to the red line below rather than the green line. The peak year was 2005. The production in 2009 was 72.26 mbd according to EIA. The production in 2010 should be about the same as 2009. 2011 production is estimated to be 70 mbd. I've also placed the forecast from the IEA WEO 2009 on the chart. worldenergyoutlook.org Their forecast to 2015 is somewhat believable. However, afterwards their forecast is not believable as it is demand derived and not supply based using realistic decline rates, recovery factors and reserve estimates. europe.theoildrum.com