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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (62213)	3/25/2010 7:42:50 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217617

hello c2, there is a sh*t storm coming, i suspect, and it will crater most, soon, i fear. we have issued plenty of suggestions, recommendations, headsup, watch n brief, and defcon 5 alerts on these si and other venues, and so we have altruistically done our duty to the best of our abilities. we must seek shelter now, so that we might emerge at the earliest moment post-storm, to pick at the bounties. it would not be pleasant to watch, rather distasteful to do, but we owe it to our families, for the voracious little ones must be fed. so, soon we will have to do the carcass picking work. all very unpleasant, and far less noble. in the mean time, some observations by a visitor This is a busy week in HK as we head toward Rugby 7s weekend, the biggest annual party event which draws in many foreigners. And as is typical of Asia , business and social events often mix over investment conferences held this week. Some takeaways: There was some criticism in the past that HK often did not get the “A” financial players as they preferred to stay in NY and London . Increased taxes and regulation in Europe and US have a way of changing things dramatically. Headhunters whom I’ve known for 20 years tell me that the past 6 months have been more active than the last great bull market for professionals in 1994. Criticism by OECD countries that Singapore ’s regulation is light on hedge funds has forced it to consider drafting new regulations. In this period of uncertainty, HFs [hedge funds] have overwhelmingly chosen HK. 70 out of 100 professionals anecdotally prefer HK over Sing. Shanghai as a financial center is at least 20 years away and the recent trials of Rio Tinto employees and Google’s leaving China underline the large political risk there. It may not be politically dangerous to make widgets in China but what about shorting the Yuan or A-shares down the road? China property bubble? Yes, but too early to short as China is not eager to raise rates. Therefore, the domestic liquidity has few alternatives other than property and equity. However, A-shares peaked in Nov 2009 and Chinese love their property.