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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (62217)	3/25/2010 2:39:53 PM
From: Zincman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218665

Downside 300... upside 500+? just swag but the lower gold pulls here, the better the risk/reward... for my model at least. ZM

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (62217)	3/25/2010 7:25:37 PM
From: TobagoJack	2 Recommendations Respond to of 218665

hello dave, i attended a friend's surprise b-day party at the hk yacht club. there was a gathering of 13 mostly canadians (and one ex-cia american who had expatriated) around a long rectangular table. we discussed the big and small pictures, and feel (i) something bad could well happen in the short run that would affect all except cash, and (ii) there could be much revolting going on from here on out. i believe your class struggle model will prove out. i, amongst the many, know (in the sense of experienced such) class struggle and can see it coming from some distance out. we also spoke a bit about all the naked and twisted government intervention that is deranging the commodities markets and the gold money market, but are not fussed, knowing that much of the trading would be aggregated in freedom hong kong, under the protection of the beijing sovereign, for the good of all liberty-loving people everywhere. power to the people. in the mean time, just in in-tray just an update - the SKI system buy signal has failed as per yesterday. it has now given a new intermediate term sell signal for gold stocks, which can only be invalidated if they rise by about 6,9% or more today. anything less will confirm the sell signal. miracles do happen occasionally, but i remain skeptical (as i mentioned at the time, the buy signal was 'high risk'). one reason why i remain skeptical is that the bullish consensus on the stock market is at fresh extremes - at a point we have only seen rarely over the past decade (see attached charts documenting the situation that has developed over the past two weeks). for the gold stocks to overcome the challenge of the coming decline in the stock market, they would need to genuinely decouple - a feat last accomplished in late 2007/early 2008 (and at that time, it was only a handful of index heavyweights that actually were strong). my guess - and it is just a guess, mind you - is that all stocks will begin to go down sometime in April in accordance with the presidential cycle, and that a buyable low for gold stocks will arrive with a sizeable lead time. (i.e. gold stocks to bottom in May/June, general market in October/November). of course, if a decoupling happens, then we might see strength in gold stocks in spite of a weak general market (which in turn has so far defied all the warning signs visible in the attached charts). however, that is a big IF - before we actually see evidence to that effect, it would be safer to assume that existing correlations and lead/lag phenomena will remain in force.