NC spending controversy: What it means for Michael Steele and the Republican Party
1. The controversy over a series of expenditures by the Republican National Committee in January -- including one for nearly $2,000 at a topless night club in California -- has triggered a whole host of questions about the potential political impact of the revelations on RNC Chairman Michael Steele and on the party more broadly.
Let's unpack what it all means and, as importantly, what it doesn't.
Although RNC officials were quick to point out that Steele was not in attendance at the gathering and had no knowledge of it, it makes little difference in terms of his questionable reputation among the GOP chattering class. Steele is the chairman, period. That means that anything that happens at the RNC -- good or bad -- accrues to either his credit or his detriment.
For all those wondering whether this story will be the one that forces Steele out at the RNC, remember that two-thirds of the committee men and women would have to vote him out and there is no one -- not even Steele's most bitter enemies -- who think that is a possibility. Simply put: Unless Steele resigns (not likely) or some other major revelation that links him directly to this night club incident comes out, he will be the chairman through 2010.
That doesn't mean that this episode -- and the fundraising document controversy that surfaced earlier this month -- won't have an impact on Steele's longer term future as chairman. Steele will have to stand for re-election (if, as he has said, he plans to run) in January 2011 and it's a near certainty now that barring HUGE gains at the ballot box this fall, someone serious will step forward to challenge him -- perhaps someone with the backing of several of the potential 2012 candidates. Still, ousting Steele won't be easy as he retains strong support within the rank and file of the party who control the balloting process.
More broadly, the latest RNC problem isn't likely to register more than a ripple on the consciousness of the average voters who, unlike the Fix and our readers, don't spend every waking minute thinking about politics.
But, again, that doesn't mean it is without impact. The cumulative weight of the series of problems at the RNC since Steele took over provides Democrats with fodder to turn the midterm election into a choice ("Do you really want to hand power over to these guys?") rather than a straight referendum on the Obama administration. The more ammunition Republicans -- including but not limited to Steele/RNC -- give to Democrats to make this a choice between the two parties, the less likely it is Republicans will be able to fully capitalize on a terrific national environment for them.
2. In a memo being sent to GOP candidates this morning, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) insisted that Democrats were whistling past the political graveyard with their celebration following the passage of President Obama's health care legislation last week.
Cornyn's argument -- put simply -- is that polling conducted after the bill passed suggests continued skepticism about both its necessity and its efficacy, doubts that make the Republican argument for divided government that much stronger. "Americans don't want a one-party rule in Washington that brings them unprecedented government intrusion in their lives, with no accountability," said Cornyn.
What Republican candidates should do, advised Cornyn, is draw bright lines between what the Democratic-controlled Congress did and what a GOP-led Senate would do. "Your job is to continue drawing these important contrasts with the Democrats' agenda in Washington, while advancing our positive agenda for creating jobs," said Cornyn.
Cornyn's memo is rightly regarded as a document meant for public consumption and, as such, should be taken cum grano salis. But, while some of the spinnier elements should be disregarded, the memo affirms that despite an extremely positive last week of press for Obama and congressional Democrats on health care, Republican leaders still believe it is an issue that plays well for them on the campaign trail and one they are urging candidates to emphasize.
With President Obama headed to Maine later this week to tout the health care plan, the White House, too, seems to be doubling-down on the idea that they can (and must) win the political debate over what the legislation means heading into the midterms.
Can you say "collision course"?
3. Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin is making good on her promise to be a major player in the 2010 midterms elections, announcing three more endorsements of military veterans running for Congress on Monday.
Via her Facebook page, Palin endorsed Vaughn Ward in Idaho's 1st district, Adam Kinzinger in Illinois' 11th and Allen West in Florida's 22nd.
Kinzinger has already won the Republican nomination and will face freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D) in the fall. West, who ran and lost against Rep. Ron Klein (D) in 2008, is the only candidate currently in the race. Ward is facing a primary challenge from state Rep. Raul Labrador as both men seek to the chance to run against freshman Rep. Walt Minnick (D) in November.
That trio of endorsements comes less than a week after Palin announced a target list of 20 districts that she plans to focus on turning from Democratic to Republican in the fall.
Interestingly, although Palin has built her political persona around her willingness to buck the establishment of her own political party, her race picks to date have been surprisingly in line with the top targets of Republicans nationally. For example, both West and Ward are part of the National Republican Congressional Committee's "Young Guns" program that highlights up and coming candidates heading into the midterms.
Her endorsements suggest an interest in emerging as a leader not simply of a conservative movement but more broadly in the Republican Party. In that Palin has stiff competition from the likes of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney (see below) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty -- among others.
4. Connecticut (a.k.a. the best state in the Union) was a hotbed of 2012 political activity on Monday with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney (R) throwing his endorsement behind former ambassador Tom Foley's gubernatorial candidacy and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour announcing he will headline an event in the state in May.
Romney called Foley a "smart businessman and a good problem solver" in announcing the endorsement, which came as little surprise to political observers given that many of the operatives involved in Romney's presidential race in 2008 are also helping Foley.
Foley, who switched from the Senate race to the gubernatorial contest when Gov. Jodi Rell (R) announced her retirement, is running for the GOP nod against Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele but a recent Quinnipiac University poll showed Foley with a wide lead.
Including Foley, Romney has endorsed four other Republicans in contested primaries for governor: state Rep. Nikki Haley in South Carolina, former eBay executive Meg Whitman in California, state Treasurer Kay Ivey in Alabama and businessman Charlie Baker in Massachusetts.
Meanwhile, the state Republican party in Connecticut announced Monday that Barbour, the current chairman of the Republican Governors Association, would headline its Prescott Bush Awards Dinner on May 19. "Governor Barbour is no stranger to do-or-die election cycles," said state party chairman Chris Healy. "We are excited to hear his thoughts on how and why Republicans will win in 2010."
ALSO READ: Romney made a stop in Iowa on Monday as part of his "No Apology" book tour.
5. South Carolina Democratic Rep. John Spratt filed to run for a 15th term on Monday, putting to rest retirement rumors and drastically increasing the chances that his party will hold the swing seat in the fall.
Spratt, who is 67, had long been rumored as a potential Democratic retirement and, as a result, his decision is likely to cause some party operatives to breathe a bit easier. Spratt isn't out of the electoral woods just yet, however, and will almost certainly face his most difficult reelection race since 1994 when he won with 52 percent.
Republicans have united behind state Sen. Mick Mulvaney and believe that the district's demographics -- Sen. John McCain carried the seat by seven points -- coupled with an environment favorable to the GOP nationally will get them over the top.
Still, a Spratt retirement would have been the latest in a series of Democratic no-goes in seats won by McCain in 2008, and would have made it a top five pickup opportunity for Republicans. (Democrats currently have 15 members retiring at the end of this year while Republicans have 18.)
As we have written before in this space, this current two-week congressional recess will reveal much about the depth of Democratic open seat vulnerability this fall. How many more Democratic members -- and we believe there will be a few -- decide not to run and, more importantly, what do their districts look like? Retirements in safe Democratic seats matter little to the fight for control. But, losing someone like Spratt, a prospect Democrats no longer need to worry about, would be of far more concern. |
