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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Snowshoe who wrote (62412)	4/1/2010 10:22:33 AM
From: TobagoJack	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218083

When dating wife to be, the first time we vacationed together, at rental car counter, the clerk asked mr chen, are you a doctor? No, why do you ask? Because your signature looks like that of a doctor no, my signature looks like that of my dad. I signed all school report cards up through half way 10th grade, and intercepted all mailings from school. And at that juncture all the folks around me who had overheard the exchange clapped with gusto. My wife, straight A from julliard, thought about her choice of boyfriend ;0)

To: Snowshoe who wrote (62412)	4/1/2010 8:07:59 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218083

today is start of 5-days weekend, ancient easter followed by some additionally ancient chinese ancestral grave sweeping days. i will use to catch up on work, else trouble and fussed. just in in-tray · All eyes in the markets are on Friday’s payroll data. Any number of 300,000 or higher will re-enforce current want-to-be-bullish sentiment and also re-invigorate Fed tightening expectations. Conversely, a disappointing number of below 100,000 will refocus investors’ concerns on a potentially damaging row between Washington and Beijing on the Chinese exchange rate. · Even if the number is a positive 300,000 plus, GREED & fear will still remain dubious about the likelihood of renewed Fed tightening in 2010. This is because of the continuing lack of any evidence of a pick up in the credit multiplier. Still it is possible to have decent profit driven economic growth for a period even if there is no general re-leveraging of the economy. · The upswing in the US economy is being driven by capex which is being funded by a corporate sector which has abundant cash flow and which has seen a big pick up in profits from the recent low. So far the pick up in capex has been dominated by the financial servicers sector spending on IT related investments. · Japan in the past 20 years is the precedent for the Western economies in terms of it being possible to have profit-driven capex cycles where there is no follow through in terms of a more general consumption driven re-leveraging cycle. GREED & fear will continue to wait for evidence of a pick up in releveraging, be it via bank lending or securitisation, rather than assuming it will happen. · The reality is that both America and Europe are hell-bent on following the same Keynesian and monetarist policies which have failed in Japan. This is why the most likely end game remains a sovereign debt crisis. · The problem about the recent pick up in US consumption remains the ability to sustain such a rise in consumption when the increase in disposable income is being driven by transfer payments and not by income growth. · In Asia consumption is being driven by rising wage growth. Indeed in some isolated areas, such as Guangdong in southern China, wage inflation is becoming a problem. This certainly poses a threat to the profit margins of low margin manufacturing exporters based in this area. Still GREED & fear continues to view rising income growth as a fundamental bullish factor for the Asian story in general, and not as a negative. · The Chinese banking and property sectors remain key areas to watch in the Asia equity context to gauge when current tightening concerns are discounted. From an A share market perspective, the authorities are now launching the gradual introduction of margin lending and stock index futures trading. In GREED & fear’s view these initiatives should turn out to be bullish, not bearish. · For Asian markets to really perform China needs to join the party, most particularly as the major stimulus for most Asian economies of late has been import demand from China. Indeed the strength of its import demand has allowed China to argue of late that it is not just a dumper of exports. · Valuations in Hong Kong-listed China companies are increasingly attractive. And these are profits denominated in a currency which in GREED & fear’s view will resume its gradual appreciation in the second half of 2010. CLSA CLEAN & GREEN: Please consider our environment before printing this email. The content of this communication is subject to CLSA Legal and Regulatory Notices These can be viewed at clsa.com or sent to you upon request.