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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Copeland who wrote (2093)4/6/2010 6:43:13 PM
From: Copeland  Respond to of 220965
 
As a corollary to my statement, this is from another board that I read:

Just a few observations concerning today's options activity in the broad-market ETFs. Again, these are strictly qualitative/"gut-feeling", so all usual disclaimers apply, as with options it's tough to infer the exact dynamics other than highlighting price ranges of interest; This is especially true with leveraged ETFs using options themselves to achieve the desired effect.

There is heavy put-buying skew in SPY and QQQQ, with IWM calls being the one notable exception (heavy activity at 70, which, being at-the-money, might be perceived as a temporary-top sign when viewed in light of the options activity in the other ETFs.

Fact is, put open interest at strikes just below the current prices is *thick*. There is a large protective cushion right underneath current levels, at least until April 16. The May situation is much more neutral.

SPY max-pain is at 117, QQQQ at 48, IWM at 68 as of yesterday.

It's almost as if a lot of market participants have hedged/collaredtheir broad market ETF positions for automatic exit by April expiration - either stock called away via calls written that are now ITM, or puts bought that will go ITM after a slight drop - say 2 or 3%.

This is a "passive" way of going to cash one way or another by the beginning of the new earnings season and re-assessing the situation. It's a convenient way to exit in size without altering market dynamics too much when the decision is taken; The result is not too visible on the tape...

...if true, it would also explain the "flatlined" market activity during the day that we have been observing lately.