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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (136030)	4/7/2010 12:17:28 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 541978

Relax, We’ll Be Fine By DAVID BROOKS Published: April 5, 2010 According to recent polls, 60 percent of Americans think the country is heading in the wrong direction. The same percentage believe that the U.S. is in long-term decline. The political system is dysfunctional. A fiscal crisis looks unavoidable. There are plenty of reasons to be gloomy. Somebody needs to send Brooks the memo, the US is DOOMED! They are going to have to take away his columnist credentials for writing otherwise. Over the next 40 years, demographers estimate that the U.S. population will surge by an additional 100 million people, to 400 million over all. The population will be enterprising and relatively young. In 2050, only a quarter will be over 60, compared with 31 percent in China and 41 percent in Japan. I wish more people paid attention to the demographic timebombs around the world. Japan has a debt to GDP ratio astronomically higher than the US AND a shrinking population. They are an economic disaster waiting to happen. Slacker

To: KyrosL who wrote (136030)	4/7/2010 1:29:25 AM
From: Cogito	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 541978

>>This column is a great luscious orgy of optimism. Because the fact is, despite all the problems, America’s future is exceedingly bright. Over the next 40 years, demographers estimate that the U.S. population will surge by an additional 100 million people, to 400 million over all.<< Spoken like a man who thinks that growth is always a good thing, and that increased consumerism will provide an economic engine for that growth. I'd love to be that optimistic. I just hope that 430 Americans will all have enough clean water to drink, enough food to eat, and enough energy to keep everything powered up.

To: KyrosL who wrote (136030)	4/7/2010 2:24:22 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 541978

Brooks must think the earth holds infinite resources. This is a keeper for its cornucopian stupidity. It's such a classic that I'll have to post it on the Drum tomorrow if it didn't make it today. "We are living in a global age of social entrepreneurship." We are living in a world which has been energy constrained for the last 4 years. energyshortage.org == Increasing Global Nonrenewable Natural Resource Scarcity—An Analysis Posted by Gail the Actuary on April 6, 2010 - 9:49am Topic: Supply/Production This is a guest post by Chris Clugston. It is a somewhat abbreviated version of a longer analysis he did, which can be downloaded here. For the past four years, he has been researching aspects of sustainability. Prior to that time, he worked for 30 years as an executive and consultant in Information Technology. Abstract During the pre-recession years of the 21st century, we experienced wide-ranging nonrenewable natural resource (NNR) scarcity on a global scale for the first time. Supplies associated with an overwhelming majority of the global energy resources, metals, and minerals that enable our industrialized way of life failed to keep pace with increasing global demand during the 2000-2008 period, resulting in global NNR supply shortfalls. Global NNR scarcity will intensify going forward, as global economic activity levels, economic growth rates, and corresponding NNR demand return to their pre-recession levels; and global NNR supply levels continue to approach and reach their geological limits. The debilitating societal effects associated with global NNR scarcity, which we experienced to a limited degree during the Great Recession, will also intensify going forward, as temporary global NNR supply shortfalls become permanent. The Global Nonrenewable Natural Resource Scarcity Assessment quantifies the scope associated with global NNR scarcity, both prior to the Great Recession and going forward, by analyzing global production (extraction) data, price data, and reserve base estimates associated with a broad array of energy resources, metals, and minerals. The salient findings associated with the assessment: 50 of the 57 analyzed NNRs (88%) experienced global scarcity during the 2000-2008 period; 23 of the 26 analyzed NNRs (88%) will likely experience permanent global supply shortfalls by the year 2030. At the end of the day, we are not about to “run out” of any NNR; we are about to run “critically short” of many. This reality will have a devastating impact on our industrial lifestyle paradigm. There's more… (3228 words) theoildrum.com

To: KyrosL who wrote (136030)	4/8/2010 5:05:09 PM
From: Brian Sullivan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 541978

We Are Out of Money, California Edition Matt Welch \| April 7, 2010 Here's an L.A. Times op-ed by David Crane, an advisor to California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger: ... is upon us The state of California's real unfunded pension debt clocks in at more than $500 billion, nearly eight times greater than officially reported. That's the finding from a study released Monday by Stanford University's public policy program, confirming a recent report with similar, stunning findings from Northwestern University and the University of Chicago. To put that number in perspective, it's almost seven times greater than all the outstanding voter-approved state general obligation bonds in California. If clip art could speak....Why should Californians care? Because this year's unfunded pension liability is next year's budget cut to important programs. For a glimpse of California's budgetary future, look no further than the $5.5 billion diverted this year from higher education, transit, parks and other programs in order to pay just a tiny bit toward current unfunded pension and healthcare promises. That figure is set to triple within 10 years and -- absent reform -- to continue to grow, crowding out funding for many programs vital to the overwhelming majority of Californians. How did we get here? The answer is simple: For decades -- and without voter consent -- state leaders have been issuing billions of dollars of debt in the form of unfunded pension and healthcare promises, then gaming accounting rules in order to understate the size of those promises. [...] Instead of a government of the people, by the people and for the people, we have become a government of its employees, by its employees and for its employees. That Stanford study is here [pdf]. And yes, we have been telling you so. The Reason Foundation, which is the 501(c)(3) nonprofit (donate today!) that pays for Reason-branded journalism, also produces some boffo nuts-and-bolts public policy research and recommendations. Last week the Foundation released a roadmap for "The Next California Budget" (press release here, pdf study here), along with a plan (release here, study here) on how to save a ton of money on the union-mangled sinkhole that is the state's corrections system. There are concrete ways out of this politician-created mess, but it's going to take a category of public servant whose first response to fiscal crisis is not "Let's close the parks!"" reason.com