Election 2010: California Senate
California Senate: Boxer's Support Remains in Low 40s
Wednesday, April 14, 2010 Email to a Friend ShareThis.Advertisement
Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer now receives no more than 43% support against any of her top three GOP opponents in her reelection bid for U.S. Senate in California, but they aren't gaining ground either.
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of likely voters shows Boxer barely ahead of Congressman Tom Campbell 43% to 41% for the second straight month. Only six percent (6%) of voters would choose some other candidate in this match-up, while 10% are not sure.
These results are identical to those found in March, but Boxer held a 45% to 41% lead in this match-up in February.
Boxer now earns just 42% of the vote when matched against both former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, with just over 10% percent undecided in both match-ups.
Fiorina gets 38% support, while DeVore picks up 39% of the vote. Both have been trending down very slightly over the past couple months.
Boxer led Fiorina by six points in March and by four points in February. The incumbent held a nine-point lead in November, but her support against Fiorina has never exceeded 46%. Boxer has previously polled up to 47% against DeVore since November.
At this stage of the campaign, any incumbent who earns less than 50% of the vote is considered vulnerable.
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Boxer, who is seeking a fourth six-year term, has the power of incumbency on her side in a state that trends Democratic. But worrisome for her is her inability to rise out of the 40s where she’s been stuck for months. The race remains surprisingly static at this point with very little movement in the numbers.
Support for the health care plan signed into law by President Obama is stronger in California than it is nationwide. Fifty percent (50%) of California voters think the law will be good for the country, which is 11 points higher than results found on the national level. Forty-one percent (41%) of voters in California think the health care law will be bad for the country.
Still, 51% of voters in the state favor repealing the law, including 44% who strongly favor it. Forty-four percent (44%) oppose repeal, with 37% who strongly oppose. Boxer carries 77% to 81% of the vote of those who strongly oppose repeal, depending on her opponent. The Republicans earn roughly 70% of those who strongly support repeal.
Most voters in the state (53%) favor the plan’s requirement that every American buy or obtain health insurance, while 44% oppose this requirement.
Unlike voters on the national level, the plurality (45%) of California voters opposes their state suing the federal government over the constitutionality of the requirement.
Twenty-two percent (22%) of California voters share a very favorable opinion of Boxer, up slightly from last month. Thirty-six percent (36%) view Boxer very unfavorably.
Campbell earns very favorable reviews from 13% of voters and very unfavorable marks from 12%.
Fiorina is viewed very favorably by nine percent (9%) and very unfavorably by 15%.
DeVore earns very favorable ratings from five percent (5%), while nine percent (9%) view him very unfavorably.
Yet while just seven percent (7%) have no opinion of Boxer, a sizable number of California voters still don't know enough abut any of the Republicans to form an opinion of them. At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.
Rasmussen Reports has recently surveyed Senate races in Arizona, Alabama, Nevada, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, California, Indiana, Wisconsin, Washington, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Kansas, Maryland, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Connecticut, Illinois, North Carolina, Iowa, Vermont, Idaho, Hawaii, and Georgia.
In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.
In California during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed Barack Obama winning the state by a 61% to 34% margin. Obama won 61% to 37%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports polling showed John Kerry leading George W. Bush in California 53% to 43%. Kerry won 54% to 44%.
In the 2006 California governor’s race, Rasmussen polling showed Schwarzenegger defeating Phil Angelides 53% to 40%. Schwarzenegger won 56% to 39%. In the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Dianne Feinstein defeating Richard Mountjoy 58% to 35%. Feinstein won 60% to 35%.
See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.
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