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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (130501)	4/26/2010 7:26:58 PM
From: Dennis Roth	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206184

Inflections and Air Pockets: Week 1 Earnings Lessons Logging While Investing OFS Weekly Analysis 41 pages, 34 exhibits Link: sendspace.com Large cap services calls for 1Q10 margin trough. HAL and SLB have pulled their trough predictions forward (and WFT affirmed the same). This is consistent with what Consensus has been modeling. But we think this “inflection” outlook bodes well for services stocks near term. (See our current average non-NAM and NAM margin progression in Exhibit 1). West Africa over capacity weighing on offshore assets. ODS-Petrodata opined that the idle deepwater fleet in West Africa may add four new units within the month — evidence, we think, supporting our view that deepwater rates may fall further as the industry absorbs uncontracted newbuilds. In the West Africa jackup market, utilization remains soft, with only one of ten idle units expected to return to work short-term, which will likely keep a lid on dayrate improvement despite high oil prices. We continue to look for range-bound dayrates for global jackups, although if Mexico continues to impose age restrictions on jackups, that could help bifurcate the market and tighten higher spec versus lower spec units. NBR, CPX and big service caps suggest liquids activity can provide resiliency in the U.S. All of the service companies are acknowledging the risks to current U.S. activity from soft natural gas prices. But the companies also offered a consistent view that shifting more resources to the drilling and service intensive liquids-rich and oil shales can mitigate this. Consensus estimates are for U.S. contribution to increase in 2Q and flatten-to-modestly-dip in 2H10.